9214 Callum Nest Ct · Baytown, TX 77521

$268,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $167/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SINGLE-FLOOR LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $268,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,140.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 791 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,457 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.04%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,140
• List price: $268,990
• Delta: 7.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9227 Alaska Shores Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+2%)	0mo	$272,290	$143	92
9315 Captain Terrace Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+1%)	0mo	$318,990	$170	88
9319 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+5%)	0mo	$255,690	$130	88
9323 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	0mo	$244,890	$139	85
9235 Alaska Shores Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+4%)	0mo	$309,990	$159	83
9327 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	0mo	$241,440	$140	81
9411 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	0mo	$286,990	$163	81
9331 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	1mo	$288,990	$164	80
9307 Captain Terrace Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	0mo	$275,990	$172	66
9231 Alaska Shores Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	1mo	$281,990	$176	66
9515 Twilight Briar Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,940 (+4%)	0mo	$295,000	$152	59
4314 Mulberry Sage Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (-3%)	1mo	$268,000	$148	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-67,869
• Equity at exit: $40,726

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-98,024
• Equity at exit: $23,616

Cash invested: $76,479 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 117 active · 76 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,000 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 791
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,097/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,601

Max offer price $226,705

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-227	+0% $-321	+5% $-415	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-408	+0% $-321	+5% $-234	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-251	base $-321	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,285
• Closing costs: $8,194
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5130 Red Drum Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,050	$1.35	0d	1	0.25mi
4606 Wild Flora Way Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,366	$1.04	62d	1	0.50mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,125	$1.28	4d	1	0.70mi
9502 Brookside Point Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2119	$2,800	$1.32	93d	1	0.81mi
8311 Caraway Lake Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2391	$2,450	$1.02	12d	1	0.82mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	73d	1	0.86mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,973	$1.28	20d	1	0.86mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	93d	1	0.87mi
4151 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1619	$1,951	$1.21	7d	1	0.87mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	54d	1	0.90mi
4847 Camden Bristol Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,695	$1.18	0d	1	0.90mi
5426 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,200	$0.98	93d	1	0.94mi
5631 Cinnamon Lake Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1999	$2,126	$1.06	4d	1	0.95mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	67d	1	1.08mi
8026 Rosemary Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2390	$2,150	$0.90	93d	1	1.13mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: ACMIAssociation fee $2,000 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Lennar HomesBrick constructionComposition roofYear built: 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 13)Three additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $268,990 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $293,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $293,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $293,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $293,990 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $293,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $293,990 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $293,990 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $298,990 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $298,990 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $298,990 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $298,990 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $298,990 Active 39 DOM

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $308,990 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $308,990 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $308,990 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $308,990 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricestatusdays on market $308,990 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-06-22
    statusdays on market $278,440 Pending 32 DOM
20. 2026-06-21
    days on market $278,440 Active 31 DOM
21. 2026-06-18
    remarks 658-char remark
22. 2026-06-18
    days on market $278,440 Active 28 DOM
23. 2026-06-17
    days on market $278,440 Active 27 DOM
24. 2026-06-16
    days on market $278,440 Active 26 DOM
25. 2026-06-15
    days on market $278,440 Active 25 DOM
26. 2026-06-13
    days on market $278,440 Active 23 DOM
27. 2026-06-09
    days on market $278,440 Active 19 DOM
28. 2026-06-07
    days on market $278,440 Active 17 DOM
29. 2026-06-04
    days on market $278,440 Active 14 DOM
30. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,440 Active 13 DOM
31. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,440 Active 12 DOM
32. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,440 Active 11 DOM
33. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,440 Active 10 DOM
34. 2026-05-19
    price $278,440 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

35. 2026-05-18
    price $278,440 553-char remark
36. 2026-04-24
    price $279,990 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

37. 2026-04-23
    price $279,990 553-char remark
38. 2026-04-08
    price $303,440 553-char remark
39. 2026-04-08
    listed $304,990 Active 553-char remark
40. 2026-04-07
    listed $303,440 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,300
• − Property taxes: −$4,097
• − Insurance: −$1,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$7,946
• Taxable loss: −$8,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Victoria Walker El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle E F Green Junior School High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: ACMIAssociation fee $2,000 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Lennar HomesBrick constructionComposition roofYear built: 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 13)Three additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-21 Price Changed $298,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-21 Price Changed $298,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $308,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $308,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-14 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-20 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $278,440 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $278,440 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $278,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $303,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $304,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $303,440 Zillow