585 25 1/2 Rd #41 · Grand Junction, CO 81505

$69,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $72k · at est. $680/mo HOA · 43% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1975
• Listed 57 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Elevated at approximately 4,600 ft; Zoning: PD
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $680; Subdivision: Paradise Valley; Land is leased

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer available; Paved road access
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Faces east; Residential single-family use
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven, electric range, microwave, refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Electric oven, electric range, microwave, refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other setup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pomona Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 347 students, 44% FRL); West Middle School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #121 of 270 statewide, top 46%, 316 students, 34% FRL); Grand Junction High School (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #188 of 381 statewide, top 49%, 1,522 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,415 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,352
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
585 25 1/2 Rd #242	0.19mi	2/1.0	980 (+3%)	6mo	$62,900	$64	81
585 25 1/2 Rd #249	0.23mi	2/1.0	924 (-3%)	7mo	$43,000	$47	79
585 25 1/2 Rd #58	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	938 (-2%)	14mo	$71,400	$76	75
585 25 1/2 Rd #46	0.02mi	2/2.0	924 (-3%)	20mo	$70,000	$76	74
585 25 1/2 Rd #64	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-3%)	15mo	$78,000	$84	71
585 25 1/2 Rd #3	0.04mi	2/2.0	840 (-12%)	7mo	$82,900	$99	69
585 25 1/2 Rd #216	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+3%)	11mo	$75,900	$77	68
585 25 1/2 Rd #215	0.18mi	2/1.0	924 (-3%)	22mo	$23,500	$25	68
585 25 1/2 Rd #40	0.01mi	2/1.0	868 (-9%)	23mo	$42,000	$48	66
585 25 1/2 Rd #149	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+12%)	6mo	$77,000	$72	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-6,204
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-2,634
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81505

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$680
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,469

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
416 Independent Ave Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	836	$1,425	$1.70	21d	1	0.61mi
108 Park Dr Unit 1 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1027	$1,250	$1.22	13d	1	0.62mi
1316 Poplar Dr Unit 4 Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	625	$1,050	$1.68	21d	1	0.72mi
2454 Window Rock Ln Unit 632 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	2.0	981	$1,960	$2.00	13d	1	0.96mi
615 Balanced Rock Way Grand Junction, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,030	$2.14	13d	25	0.97mi
623 Balanced Rock Way Unit 231 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,145	$1.92	21d	1	1.01mi
960 Bookcliff Ave Unit 116 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	21d	1	1.33mi
1717 Cannell Ave Grand Junction, CO	1.0	1.0	644	$1,310	$2.03	13d	1	1.35mi
959 Northern Way Unit 3 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	820	$1,215	$1.48	13d	1	1.37mi
950 Northern Way #17 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	860	$1,500	$1.74	13d	1	1.42mi
445 Chipeta Ave Grand Junction, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,634	$2.33	13d	10	1.46mi
1140 Walnut Ave #28 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	779	$1,395	$1.79	21d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $680 · $8,160/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $69,500
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $74,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − HOA: −$8,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$151
• After-tax cash flow: $1,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Grand Junction

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #2222

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Junction, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 113,583
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 13,279
• Household income: $90,830
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 359.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.12%
• Current HPI: 294.4896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $69,500 GJARA
• 2026-03-31 Listed $74,500 GJARA

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2021): $28 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.