14291 Rios Canyon Rd #13 · Harbison Canyon, CA 92021

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and beautifully updated, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is located in a highly sought-after all-age community with low space rent. This darling home is packed with valuable upgrades, including a 2-year-old roof, energy-efficient windows, new copper plumbing throughout, new rain gutters, new flooring, and fresh interior paint. The remodeled kitchen and updated bathroom add modern style and comfort, while the spacious primary bedroom features a walk-in closet for added convenience. Outside, it has a fully fenced yard perfect for pets, gardening, or relaxing outdoors. As an added bonus, the seller is offering a generous $9,600 credit that can be used toward closing costs, an interest rat

Key facts

• 2 year old roof
• New rain gutters
• New flooring

Tags

• 2 YEAR OLD ROOF
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• NEW COPPER PLUMBING
• NEW RAIN GUTTERS
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool; Playground; Alta Vista community

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Clubhouse; Playground; Full fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Dual cooling; Has cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range hood; Gas water heater; Full fencing; Shed(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.3% in Harbison Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,111 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.79%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,573
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $37,721
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $710	+0% $662	+5% $614	+10% $567
Rent	-10% $497	-5% $579	+0% $662	+5% $745	+10% $828
Rate	-1.0pp $747	-0.5pp $705	base $662	+0.5pp $618	+1.0pp $574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $169,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 182.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $5,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,310
• After-tax cash flow: $6,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Harbison Canyon

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1111
• US rank: #25583

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $199,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2013): $454 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.