1455 Penniman Rd · Williamsburg, VA 23185

$190,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1975 1.01 ac lot $170/sqft · 31% below area Est $277k · 31% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming ranch-style home, characterized by its low-profile silhouette and straightforward layout, is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch. While the house requires extensive renovation work, it was clearly well-loved by its previous owners. Imagine the open-concept living space you can create, bringing this single-story gem into the modern era with your choice of finishes and fixtures. The simple, functional design provides an excellent foundation for your remodeling dreams. A major highlight of this property is the large, detached workshop. This versatile structure is a hobbyist's dream, perfect for wood working, car repairs, or as an inspiring art studio. Alternatively, explore the exciting possibility of converting this space into a complete Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU)—ideal for an in-law suite, home office, or even as a source of rental income (subject to local zoning). The tranquil 1-acre lot offers abundant space and privacy, surrounded by nature yet minutes from everything. The expansive lawn and mature trees create a peaceful sanctuary. There's plenty of room to cultivate a thriving garden, install a pool, create a dedicated play area, or establish a stunning outdoor entertaining space. Enjoy the unique benefit of being in a peaceful, natural setting while being extraordinarily close to local attractions. This property is located just a short drive from the excitement of Water Country and the thrills of Busch Gardens, ensuring endless entertainment options are within easy reach. Plus, enjoy convenient access to local shopping, dining, and major transportation routes. If you're a visionary buyer seeking a project with immense potential, this is the property for you. With your creative vision and effort, this rancher and detached workshop can be transformed into a stunning modern retreat.

Key facts

• Expansive lawn
• Detached workshop
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• ACCESSORY DWELLING UNIT
• 1 ACRE LOT
• EXPANSIVE LAWN
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Magruder Elementary (math 68% / reading 78%, grade A, #259 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 663 students, 47% FRL); Queens Lake Middle (math 67% / reading 82%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 574 students, 42% FRL); Bruton High (math 62% / reading 87%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 711 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 15% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.60%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,065
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -31.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1455 Penniman Rd	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,115 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$126	100
1154 Duncan Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,151 (+3%)	7mo	$280,000	$243	56
504 Fillmore Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,015 (-9%)	6mo	$292,000	$288	40
500 Fillmore Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,119 (+0%)	22mo	$284,900	$255	39
104 Luther Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-7%)	20mo	$259,000	$249	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $18,775
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $96,729
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23185

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $799	-5% $745	+0% $692	+5% $638	+10% $584
Rent	-10% $500	-5% $596	+0% $692	+5% $788	+10% $884
Rate	-1.0pp $787	-0.5pp $740	base $692	+0.5pp $642	+1.0pp $592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1512 Merrimac Trl Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.87mi
1183 Penniman Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1098	$2,075	$1.89	3d	1	0.89mi
1200 Marquis Pkwy Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$3,263	$3.18	3d	32	0.97mi
104 Merlot Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1467	$2,350	$1.60	45d	1	1.13mi
112 Semple Rd Unit NA Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	3d	1	1.21mi
211 Hubbard Ln Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1267	$1,800	$1.42	19d	1	1.37mi
4050 Battery Blvd Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,488	$2.27	3d	18	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1847 chars)

   This charming ranch-style home, characterized by its low-profile silhouette and straightforward layout, is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch. While the house requires extensive renovation work, it was clearly well-loved by its previous owners. Imagine the open-concept living space you can create, bringing this single-story gem into the modern era with your choice of finishes and fixtures. The simple, functional design provides an excellent foundation for your remodeling dreams. A major highlight of this property is the large, detached workshop. This versatile structure is a hobbyist's dream, perfect for wood working, car repairs, or as an inspiring art studio. Alternatively, explore the exciting possibility of converting this space into a complete Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU)—ideal for an in-law suite, home office, or even as a source of rental income (subject to local zoning). The tranquil 1-acre lot offers abundant space and privacy, surrounded by nature yet minutes from everything. The expansive lawn and mature trees create a peaceful sanctuary. There's plenty of room to cultivate a thriving garden, install a pool, create a dedicated play area, or establish a stunning outdoor entertaining space. Enjoy the unique benefit of being in a peaceful, natural setting while being extraordinarily close to local attractions. This property is located just a short drive from the excitement of Water Country and the thrills of Busch Gardens, ensuring endless entertainment options are within easy reach. Plus, enjoy convenient access to local shopping, dining, and major transportation routes. If you're a visionary buyer seeking a project with immense potential, this is the property for you. With your creative vision and effort, this rancher and detached workshop can be transformed into a stunning modern retreat.

2. 2026-05-12
   price $190,000 1847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1847 chars)

   This charming ranch-style home, characterized by its low-profile silhouette and straightforward layout, is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch. While the house requires extensive renovation work, it was clearly well-loved by its previous owners. Imagine the open-concept living space you can create, bringing this single-story gem into the modern era with your choice of finishes and fixtures. The simple, functional design provides an excellent foundation for your remodeling dreams. A major highlight of this property is the large, detached workshop. This versatile structure is a hobbyist's dream, perfect for wood working, car repairs, or as an inspiring art studio. Alternatively, explore the exciting possibility of converting this space into a complete Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU)—ideal for an in-law suite, home office, or even as a source of rental income (subject to local zoning). The tranquil 1-acre lot offers abundant space and privacy, surrounded by nature yet minutes from everything. The expansive lawn and mature trees create a peaceful sanctuary. There's plenty of room to cultivate a thriving garden, install a pool, create a dedicated play area, or establish a stunning outdoor entertaining space. Enjoy the unique benefit of being in a peaceful, natural setting while being extraordinarily close to local attractions. This property is located just a short drive from the excitement of Water Country and the thrills of Busch Gardens, ensuring endless entertainment options are within easy reach. Plus, enjoy convenient access to local shopping, dining, and major transportation routes. If you're a visionary buyer seeking a project with immense potential, this is the property for you. With your creative vision and effort, this rancher and detached workshop can be transformed into a stunning modern retreat.

3. 2026-04-24
   status Active 1847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1847 chars)

   This charming ranch-style home, characterized by its low-profile silhouette and straightforward layout, is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch. While the house requires extensive renovation work, it was clearly well-loved by its previous owners. Imagine the open-concept living space you can create, bringing this single-story gem into the modern era with your choice of finishes and fixtures. The simple, functional design provides an excellent foundation for your remodeling dreams. A major highlight of this property is the large, detached workshop. This versatile structure is a hobbyist's dream, perfect for wood working, car repairs, or as an inspiring art studio. Alternatively, explore the exciting possibility of converting this space into a complete Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU)—ideal for an in-law suite, home office, or even as a source of rental income (subject to local zoning). The tranquil 1-acre lot offers abundant space and privacy, surrounded by nature yet minutes from everything. The expansive lawn and mature trees create a peaceful sanctuary. There's plenty of room to cultivate a thriving garden, install a pool, create a dedicated play area, or establish a stunning outdoor entertaining space. Enjoy the unique benefit of being in a peaceful, natural setting while being extraordinarily close to local attractions. This property is located just a short drive from the excitement of Water Country and the thrills of Busch Gardens, ensuring endless entertainment options are within easy reach. Plus, enjoy convenient access to local shopping, dining, and major transportation routes. If you're a visionary buyer seeking a project with immense potential, this is the property for you. With your creative vision and effort, this rancher and detached workshop can be transformed into a stunning modern retreat.

4. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 1847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1847 chars)

   This charming ranch-style home, characterized by its low-profile silhouette and straightforward layout, is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch. While the house requires extensive renovation work, it was clearly well-loved by its previous owners. Imagine the open-concept living space you can create, bringing this single-story gem into the modern era with your choice of finishes and fixtures. The simple, functional design provides an excellent foundation for your remodeling dreams. A major highlight of this property is the large, detached workshop. This versatile structure is a hobbyist's dream, perfect for wood working, car repairs, or as an inspiring art studio. Alternatively, explore the exciting possibility of converting this space into a complete Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU)—ideal for an in-law suite, home office, or even as a source of rental income (subject to local zoning). The tranquil 1-acre lot offers abundant space and privacy, surrounded by nature yet minutes from everything. The expansive lawn and mature trees create a peaceful sanctuary. There's plenty of room to cultivate a thriving garden, install a pool, create a dedicated play area, or establish a stunning outdoor entertaining space. Enjoy the unique benefit of being in a peaceful, natural setting while being extraordinarily close to local attractions. This property is located just a short drive from the excitement of Water Country and the thrills of Busch Gardens, ensuring endless entertainment options are within easy reach. Plus, enjoy convenient access to local shopping, dining, and major transportation routes. If you're a visionary buyer seeking a project with immense potential, this is the property for you. With your creative vision and effort, this rancher and detached workshop can be transformed into a stunning modern retreat.

5. 2026-04-15
   listed $220,000 Active 1847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1847 chars)

   This charming ranch-style home, characterized by its low-profile silhouette and straightforward layout, is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch. While the house requires extensive renovation work, it was clearly well-loved by its previous owners. Imagine the open-concept living space you can create, bringing this single-story gem into the modern era with your choice of finishes and fixtures. The simple, functional design provides an excellent foundation for your remodeling dreams. A major highlight of this property is the large, detached workshop. This versatile structure is a hobbyist's dream, perfect for wood working, car repairs, or as an inspiring art studio. Alternatively, explore the exciting possibility of converting this space into a complete Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU)—ideal for an in-law suite, home office, or even as a source of rental income (subject to local zoning). The tranquil 1-acre lot offers abundant space and privacy, surrounded by nature yet minutes from everything. The expansive lawn and mature trees create a peaceful sanctuary. There's plenty of room to cultivate a thriving garden, install a pool, create a dedicated play area, or establish a stunning outdoor entertaining space. Enjoy the unique benefit of being in a peaceful, natural setting while being extraordinarily close to local attractions. This property is located just a short drive from the excitement of Water Country and the thrills of Busch Gardens, ensuring endless entertainment options are within easy reach. Plus, enjoy convenient access to local shopping, dining, and major transportation routes. If you're a visionary buyer seeking a project with immense potential, this is the property for you. With your creative vision and effort, this rancher and detached workshop can be transformed into a stunning modern retreat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $5,545
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,331
• After-tax cash flow: $6,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamsburg City · 55,270 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,270
• Household income: $105,431
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 240.1637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $190,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $220,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,835 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.