8937 Ironwood Ave S · Cottage Grove, MN 55016

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1972 1,306 sqft lot $281/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

End unit w/deck and private patio connecting garage & house. Beautiful oak floors-most rooms just painted-formal DR or use as large LR-patio door to view treed back yard-newer appliances (see disclosures for dates). Rentals permitted.

Key facts

• End unit townhome
• Oak flooring
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOME
• PRIVATE COURT YARD
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• OAK FLOORING
• DECK WALKS DOWN TO GREEN SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 21 x 77 (about 1,306.8 sq ft); Above-grade finished area and related area details provided (total living area approx. 1,140 sq ft; building total 1,200)
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include deck and patio; HOA covers hazard insurance, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking; Garage door opener; Guest parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service via Xcel Energy
• Home design: Attached residential property; Split entry (bi-level) design; Entry foyer on main level
• Construction: Brick/mortar foundation; Asphalt roof (over 8 years old); Built with block basement; Sump pump in basement; Year built: not provided
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck; Patio; Private road access; Association-maintained road; Tree coverage (medium); Public transit within about 6 blocks

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total (one bedroom on lower level, second bedroom on lower level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (full basement)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Informal dining area / kitchen-dining room layout; Finished daylight basement with egress windows and drain tile; Natural woodwork; Local area network; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Laundry located in hall / laundry closet on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Cottage Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#132 in MN, #2,948 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,282
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,343
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55016

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,220/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$281
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $195	+0% $146	+5% $96	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $66	+0% $146	+5% $226	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $190	base $146	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7550 80th St S Cottage Grove, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,278	$2.29	0d	11	1.48mi
7604 79th St S Cottage Grove, MN	2.0	2.0	1222	$1,995	$1.63	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $281 · $3,372/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $175,000 Active
4. 2013-04-22
   soldstatus $75,000
5. 2013-04-11
   historical 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   End unit w/deck and private patio connecting garage & house. Beautiful oak floors-most rooms just painted-formal DR or use as large LR-patio door to view treed back yard-newer appliances (see disclosures for dates). Rentals permitted.

6. 2013-04-10
   soldstatus $75,000 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   End unit w/deck and private patio connecting garage & house. Beautiful oak floors-most rooms just painted-formal DR or use as large LR-patio door to view treed back yard-newer appliances (see disclosures for dates). Rentals permitted.

7. 2012-09-27
   listed $75,000 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   End unit w/deck and private patio connecting garage & house. Beautiful oak floors-most rooms just painted-formal DR or use as large LR-patio door to view treed back yard-newer appliances (see disclosures for dates). Rentals permitted.

8. 1994-08-01
   soldstatus $49,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,220 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,220 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,220
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − HOA: −$3,372
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$219
• After-tax cash flow: $1,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #2948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottage Grove, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 40,695
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,695
• Household income: $120,715
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.55%
• Current HPI: 241.1084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+254.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $175,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-10 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-27 Listed $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,350 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,220 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.