Lavaca Plan · Angleton, TX 77515

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,109 sqft · SingleFamily · 155 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lavaca floor plan offers an exceptional living experience with its thoughtful design, modern amenities, and customizable options. With four bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this plan provides ample space for families of all sizes. Entering this home, you're met with the foyer area which leads to the combined kitchen and dining area that faces your spacious family room area. The kitchen is complete with gorgeous granite countertops, designer light fixtures, a walk-in pantry and a sizeable kitchen island. Following the combined living area is the private master suite and walk-in closet. Homeowners can choose between a 2-car or 2.5-car garage, while the optional covered patio offers a comfortable and inviting outdoor space for relaxing and entertaining guests. For those seeking a touch of luxury, the Lavaca also includes a master luxury bath option, featuring upgraded features such as a spa-like shower, soaking tub, and double vanity. In addition, the Lavaca floor plan also boasts an upstairs game room, providing a versatile space for a variety of activities, from movie nights to game tournaments or even a home gym. Also upstairs are the three remaining bedrooms with two bedrooms containing walk-in closets for ultimate storage capacity, as well as an upstairs utility room! Measuring in at 2109 square feet, the Lavaca offers ample living space while maintaining a cozy and inviting atmosphere. With its spacious design and numerous customizable options, this floor plan truly has. ..

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Foyer area
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• FOYER AREA
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM AREA
• GORGEOUS GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SIZEABLE KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $404,652.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 4.4% in Angleton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westside El (math 52% / reading 44%, grade D, #971 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 1,010 students, 78% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1104 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,056 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.88%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 17.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,652
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -28.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
County Road 220	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,063 (-2%)	24mo	$617,685	$299	47
2424 County Road 288	0.98mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,152 (+2%)	16mo	$325,000	$151	41
113 Beechnut St	1.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,128 (+1%)	26mo	$319,900	$150	38
14040 S Highway 288b	1.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,930 (-8%)	9mo	$280,000	$145	37
656 County Road 698c	0.95mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,352 (+12%)	7mo	$429,000	$182	35
113 Lostrocco St	1.36mi	4/2.0	1,988 (-6%)	26mo	$285,000	$143	33
112 Walnut St	1.27mi	4/3.0	1,686 (-20%)	6mo	$309,000	$183	33
2308 Shanks Rd	1.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,940 (-8%)	26mo	$220,000	$113	21
104 Walnut St	1.31mi	4/2.5	1,720 (-18%)	27mo	$265,000	$154	20
0000 County Road 288 Off Pvt R	0.99mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,390 (+13%)	35mo	$179,900	$75	16
1128 County Road 607	1.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (-22%)	24mo	$319,000	$195	13
5929 County Road 288 Rd	0.89mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,627 (-23%)	35mo	$224,900	$138	9

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-153,221
• Equity at exit: $60,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.17×
• Total profit: $-246,094
• Equity at exit: $34,987

Cash invested: $113,303 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active
• Median asking: $288,990 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,122
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$506 /mo · $6,070/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-1,377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,624

Max offer price $205,358

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,098	-5% $-1,237	+0% $-1,377	+5% $-1,517	+10% $-1,657
Rent	-10% $-1,526	-5% $-1,452	+0% $-1,377	+5% $-1,303	+10% $-1,229
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,173	-0.5pp $-1,274	base $-1,377	+0.5pp $-1,482	+1.0pp $-1,589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,163
• Closing costs: $12,140
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $289,990 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $289,990 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $289,990 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $289,990 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $289,990 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $289,990 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 132 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 131 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 130 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 129 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 128 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $289,990 Active 127 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $289,990 Active 126 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 125 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 123 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 122 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,990 Active 121 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 120 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 119 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 118 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 117 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 116 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $289,990 Active 115 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,990 Active 114 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $289,990 Active 113 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $289,990 Active 112 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $289,990 Active 110 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $289,990 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 104 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 103 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 102 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 101 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $289,990 Active 99 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,990 Active 95 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 94 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 93 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 90 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,667
• − Property taxes: −$6,070
• − Insurance: −$2,821
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$11,772
• Taxable loss: −$24,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Lavaca floor plan home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and customizable options, making it an attractive investment for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring improves the home's appearance and reduces maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features improve convenience and add value to the home, attracting tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting eco-conscious buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Westside El D TX #971/4,322 Nat'l #14,249/41,679 High Angleton H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Angleton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 34,088
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Listed $285,990 Zillow