118 Millcreek Dr · Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 359 Days on market

Built 1979 3.22 ac lot Est $229k · 34% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well maintained 2 Bedroom/2 Bath would make for a perfect investment opportunity, 2nd lake area home or a place for a 1st time homebuyer. Just 2 miles from historic, downtown Melrose, the entire rural and secluded 3+ acres is securely fenced as well as having a 6ft chain link fence that surrounds the home site for additional peace of mind for both pets and children. New carpet installed in August 2015 and vinyl throughout. Both baths recently upgraded. Hardwood kitchen cabinets and newer appliances. The indoor laundry/utility room features new washes and dryer and plenty of storage space. Large front deck and composite-made, open back deck. Metal roof in 2008. Large, new A/C in 2010. This place is turn-key; move-in and enjoy!

Key facts

• Newer appliances
• Fenced property
• 3 acres

Tags

• 3 ACRES
• FENCED PROPERTY
• 6 FOOT CHAIN LINK FENCE
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• HARDWOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEWER APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: between 2 and less than 5 acres (3.22 acres); Lot size about 3.22 acres (approximately 13,031 m²)
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $60 (monthly equivalent $5); Association name: Sandy Carion; Pets allowed; Development: Ashley Lake Plantation; Association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof type; Other foundation details; Built on a one-level foundation
• Exterior features: Private lot; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (Other); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.7% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Melrose Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 376 students, 49% FRL); Putnam Academy of Arts And Sciences (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #291 of 571 statewide, top 52%, 177 students, 75% FRL, charter); Interlachen Jr-Sr High School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,097 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 9275% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $150k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.85%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,528
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
149 Jack Oak Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-6%)	3mo	$215,000	$207	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,810
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $16,592
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32666

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,668/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $317	+0% $275	+5% $232	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $211	+0% $275	+5% $338	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $313	base $275	+0.5pp $236	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 359 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 351 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 347 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 346 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 345 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 341 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 340 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 339 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 338 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $150,000
16. 2026-03-29
    listed $1,600
17. 2026-01-31
    price $155,000
18. 2026-01-04
    status Active
19. 2026-01-04
    price $160,000
20. 2025-12-31
    historical
21. 2025-10-25
    price $165,000
22. 2025-07-12
    price $175,000
23. 2025-06-23
    listed $190,000 Active
24. 2024-12-08
    historical
25. 2024-12-07
    historical $1,500
26. 2024-11-25
    listed $1,500
27. 2024-09-13
    status Active
28. 2024-09-03
    status Pending
29. 2024-07-30
    price $155,000
30. 2024-07-07
    price $165,000
31. 2024-06-21
    status Active
32. 2024-06-21
    price $190,000
33. 2024-05-26
    listed $160,000 Active
34. 2015-11-05
    soldstatus $37,500 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    This well maintained 2 Bedroom/2 Bath would make for a perfect investment opportunity, 2nd lake area home or a place for a 1st time homebuyer. Just 2 miles from historic, downtown Melrose, the entire rural and secluded 3+ acres is securely fenced as well as having a 6ft chain link fence that surrounds the home site for additional peace of mind for both pets and children. New carpet installed in August 2015 and vinyl throughout. Both baths recently upgraded. Hardwood kitchen cabinets and newer appliances. The indoor laundry/utility room features new washes and dryer and plenty of storage space. Large front deck and composite-made, open back deck. Metal roof in 2008. Large, new A/C in 2010. This place is turn-key; move-in and enjoy!

35. 2015-08-21
    historical
36. 2015-08-21
    listed $44,500
37. 2015-08-13
    listed $44,500 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    This well maintained 2 Bedroom/2 Bath would make for a perfect investment opportunity, 2nd lake area home or a place for a 1st time homebuyer. Just 2 miles from historic, downtown Melrose, the entire rural and secluded 3+ acres is securely fenced as well as having a 6ft chain link fence that surrounds the home site for additional peace of mind for both pets and children. New carpet installed in August 2015 and vinyl throughout. Both baths recently upgraded. Hardwood kitchen cabinets and newer appliances. The indoor laundry/utility room features new washes and dryer and plenty of storage space. Large front deck and composite-made, open back deck. Metal roof in 2008. Large, new A/C in 2010. This place is turn-key; move-in and enjoy!

38. 2015-03-11
    soldstatus $42,000
39. 2014-10-03
    listed $42,000
40. 2005-02-07
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,668 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,668 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,668
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $3,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.77%
• Current HPI: 314.0055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+212.5% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Listed for Rent $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-07 Rental Removed $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Listed for Rent $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-07 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-26 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-05 Sold (MLS) $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-21 Listed $44,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-13 Listed $44,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-11 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-03 Listed $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,668 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.