63 Frederick Rd · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$209,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1958 8,276 sqft lot Est $235k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL KEPT RANCH NEAR ELLICOTT CREEK AREA! CONVENIENLY LOCATED! LARGE LIVING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL HARD WOOD FLOORS GREETS YOU AT FRONT DOOR! NICE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ACCESS TO BACKYARD AND REAR ENTRANCE AS WELL AS 3RD BEDROOM WHICH COULD BE A DINING ROOM! EXTRA ROOM/OFFICE IN SUPER CLEAN BASEMENT! ADDITIONAL SPACE FOR A GREAT "MAN CAVE" AS WELL! GOOD SIZE FULL BATH! FULLY FENCED YARD WITH COVERED PATIO ON SIDE OF GARAGE WHICH IS EXTRA DEEP FOR STORAGE! MR. CLEAN LIVES HERE!

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot (60 x 136)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Basement (full, partially finished); Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Utilities include connected water and sewer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-704/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $210k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,240 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,950
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
90 Dale Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	864 (-7%)	4mo	$250,000	$289	73
52 Briarlee Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,024 (+11%)	7mo	$260,000	$254	64
84 Rockland Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	988 (+7%)	10mo	$248,000	$251	47
93 Rockland Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,053 (+14%)	5mo	$235,000	$223	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,061
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,133
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,673/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,787

Max offer price $199,632

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $1	+0% $-59	+5% $-118	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-126	+0% $-59	+5% $9	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-5	base $-59	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	2d	35	0.61mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	2d	1	1.02mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	2d	9	1.03mi
705 Sandra Ln North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	2d	9	1.04mi
1974 Newell Ave Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	675	$1,185	$1.76	4d	3	1.19mi
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.28mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	1.33mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $209,999 Active
3. 2019-11-18
   soldstatus $134,800 Closed Sale or Rented 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   WELL KEPT RANCH NEAR ELLICOTT CREEK AREA! CONVENIENLY LOCATED! LARGE LIVING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL HARD WOOD FLOORS GREETS YOU AT FRONT DOOR! NICE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ACCESS TO BACKYARD AND REAR ENTRANCE AS WELL AS 3RD BEDROOM WHICH COULD BE A DINING ROOM! EXTRA ROOM/OFFICE IN SUPER CLEAN BASEMENT! ADDITIONAL SPACE FOR A GREAT "MAN CAVE" AS WELL! GOOD SIZE FULL BATH! FULLY FENCED YARD WITH COVERED PATIO ON SIDE OF GARAGE WHICH IS EXTRA DEEP FOR STORAGE! MR. CLEAN LIVES HERE!

4. 2019-11-18
   soldstatus $134,800

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   WELL KEPT RANCH NEAR ELLICOTT CREEK AREA! CONVENIENLY LOCATED! LARGE LIVING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL HARD WOOD FLOORS GREETS YOU AT FRONT DOOR! NICE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ACCESS TO BACKYARD AND REAR ENTRANCE AS WELL AS 3RD BEDROOM WHICH COULD BE A DINING ROOM! EXTRA ROOM/OFFICE IN SUPER CLEAN BASEMENT! ADDITIONAL SPACE FOR A GREAT "MAN CAVE" AS WELL! GOOD SIZE FULL BATH! FULLY FENCED YARD WITH COVERED PATIO ON SIDE OF GARAGE WHICH IS EXTRA DEEP FOR STORAGE! MR. CLEAN LIVES HERE!

5. 2019-09-24
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   WELL KEPT RANCH NEAR ELLICOTT CREEK AREA! CONVENIENLY LOCATED! LARGE LIVING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL HARD WOOD FLOORS GREETS YOU AT FRONT DOOR! NICE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ACCESS TO BACKYARD AND REAR ENTRANCE AS WELL AS 3RD BEDROOM WHICH COULD BE A DINING ROOM! EXTRA ROOM/OFFICE IN SUPER CLEAN BASEMENT! ADDITIONAL SPACE FOR A GREAT "MAN CAVE" AS WELL! GOOD SIZE FULL BATH! FULLY FENCED YARD WITH COVERED PATIO ON SIDE OF GARAGE WHICH IS EXTRA DEEP FOR STORAGE! MR. CLEAN LIVES HERE!

6. 2019-09-07
   listed $139,900 Active 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (486 chars)

   WELL KEPT RANCH NEAR ELLICOTT CREEK AREA! CONVENIENLY LOCATED! LARGE LIVING ROOM WITH BEAUTIFUL HARD WOOD FLOORS GREETS YOU AT FRONT DOOR! NICE EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH ACCESS TO BACKYARD AND REAR ENTRANCE AS WELL AS 3RD BEDROOM WHICH COULD BE A DINING ROOM! EXTRA ROOM/OFFICE IN SUPER CLEAN BASEMENT! ADDITIONAL SPACE FOR A GREAT "MAN CAVE" AS WELL! GOOD SIZE FULL BATH! FULLY FENCED YARD WITH COVERED PATIO ON SIDE OF GARAGE WHICH IS EXTRA DEEP FOR STORAGE! MR. CLEAN LIVES HERE!

7. 2015-10-26
   soldstatus $102,000 Closed Sale or Rented 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   Fully remodeled beautiful ranch on a quiet street in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced private backyard with covered deck off of garage, and a built-in working gas grill. This maintenance free home is newly sided and freshly painted throughout! Updates include remodeled kitchen, bathroom, and brand new picture window! This full, dry basement includes ample storage, work area, and a fixed up office, den or recreation room!

8. 2015-10-20
   soldstatus $102,000
9. 2015-08-28
   status Pending Sale 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   Fully remodeled beautiful ranch on a quiet street in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced private backyard with covered deck off of garage, and a built-in working gas grill. This maintenance free home is newly sided and freshly painted throughout! Updates include remodeled kitchen, bathroom, and brand new picture window! This full, dry basement includes ample storage, work area, and a fixed up office, den or recreation room!

10. 2015-08-06
    listed $109,900 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Fully remodeled beautiful ranch on a quiet street in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced private backyard with covered deck off of garage, and a built-in working gas grill. This maintenance free home is newly sided and freshly painted throughout! Updates include remodeled kitchen, bathroom, and brand new picture window! This full, dry basement includes ample storage, work area, and a fixed up office, den or recreation room!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,673 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$37/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,673
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,040
• After-tax cash flow: $336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+91.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $209,999 WNYREIS
• 2019-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $134,800 Public Records
• 2019-11-18 Sold (MLS) $134,800 WNYREIS
• 2019-09-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-09-07 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-10-26 Sold (MLS) $102,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-08-06 Listed $109,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,673 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.