13138 Mccrorey Crest Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$194,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,050 sqft lot Est $178k · 9% over $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ADORABLE NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN MCCROREY TRAILS! Wonderful Location with No Back Neighbor for Extra Privacy!! Great Open Concept Interior Layout! Delightful Island Kitchen, Opens onto Spacious Living & Dining Area! Excellent for Functionality AND for Entertaining! Primary Suite Offers Lovely Bath with a Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Great Community with Park, Fishing Pond, Basketball Courts & Pickleball. Hurry and Call Today! MOVE IN READY!

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Spacious living area
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NO BACK NEIGHBOR
• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $197,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Spec inventory, Plan: Brighton

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1158

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-316/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $173,573 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13126 Mccrorey Crest Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,144 (0%)	0mo	$184,990	$162	99
12350 Mccrorey Trails Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+1%)	2mo	$192,990	$167	94
12251 Mccrorey Castle Pass	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+12%)	2mo	$193,990	$152	77
12259 Mccrorey Castle Pass	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+12%)	2mo	$209,990	$164	77
13142 Turret Bend Way	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,206 (+5%)	1mo	$176,990	$147	76
12327 Mccrorey Trails Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+12%)	2mo	$194,990	$152	74
12315 Mccrorey Trails Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,279 (+12%)	2mo	$197,990	$155	74
12315 Sword Point Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-11%)	1mo	$159,990	$156	69
12238 Shield Crest Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-10%)	1mo	$169,990	$165	67
12234 Shield Crest Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-11%)	0mo	$154,990	$152	67
12246 Shield Crest Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,030 (-10%)	0mo	$154,990	$150	67
12251 Shield Crest Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-11%)	1mo	$168,990	$165	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-38,302
• Equity at exit: $29,074

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-54,937
• Equity at exit: $16,859

Cash invested: $54,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $191,184

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,748
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12366 Sword Point Ct Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	44d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $194,990 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $199,990 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,990 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $202,990 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $202,990 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $202,990 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $202,990 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $202,990 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $202,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,922
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,672
• Taxable loss: −$3,599
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$864
• After-tax cash flow: $548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-family home in Cut and Shoot, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B