37311 E 47th St #161 · Palmdale, CA 93552

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $180k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated seller! All offers will be considered Double wide home, well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home. In a Senior Park Community, for seniors 55 and over! Offering 1,536 sq ft of comfortable living lifestyle, The open floor plan allows for plenty of natural light, Community Amenities: swimming pool, on-site laundry facility, country clubhouse/recreational center. Ample RV, boat, and guest parking Prime Location: Just a short walk from shopping-Walmart & Stater Brothers and Walgreens. Just walking distance from restaurants and IN SHAPE gym. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1981
• Listed 87 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager: James Musica (661-285-4555); APN: 8950-102-161; Unit has awning
• HOA & community: Park features include recreation area, clubhouse/rec room, and pool; New space rent $700; park deposit $1,000; deposit $3,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home; Manufactured in 1980; Length 64 ft, Width 24 ft; Senior park (Seniors only); Located in Thousand Elms park, space #161
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Manufactured by Kauman Broad (model: Kauman Broad); Trade name: Cayon Crest; Serial/Label: KBCASNA115230; CAL207221/CAL20722
• Exterior features: Recreation area; Clubhouse/rec room; Pool; Skirted mobile home

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas Range; Awning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Palmdale Learning Plaza (783 students, 80% FRL); Cactus Medical Health And Technology Magnet Academy (865 students, 92% FRL); William J. (Pete) Knight High (2,793 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $139k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.98%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,712
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37311 E 47th St #124	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	16mo	$155,000	$108	71
4444 E Avenue R #152	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	6mo	$110,000	$76	46
4444 E Avenue R #122	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	20mo	$240,000	$172	35
4444 E Avenue R Spc 120	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	20mo	$157,000	$117	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $76,629
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $194,536
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93552

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $1,556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,652	-5% $1,604	+0% $1,556	+5% $1,508	+10% $1,460
Rent	-10% $1,304	-5% $1,430	+0% $1,556	+5% $1,682	+10% $1,808
Rate	-1.0pp $1,626	-0.5pp $1,591	base $1,556	+0.5pp $1,520	+1.0pp $1,483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37526 Rose St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1361	$3,150	$2.31	0d	1	0.25mi
37333 Scranton Ct Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,850	$1.62	26d	1	0.49mi
4636 Blue Ridge Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1526	$3,000	$1.97	25d	1	0.52mi
37210 Sabal Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1198	$2,395	$2.00	0d	1	0.81mi
5327 Meredith Ave Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1600	$3,200	$2.00	0d	1	0.83mi
36717 Sulphur Springs Rd Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1548	$3,100	$2.00	20d	1	0.86mi
37734 Tackstem St Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	0d	1	0.93mi
37147 Alder St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,900	$1.69	0d	1	0.94mi
4206 East Avenue Q-14 Unit Q14 Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,850	$2.48	0d	1	1.03mi
3559 E Avenue R14 Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,895	$1.95	0d	1	1.03mi
37347 Waterman Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,350	$2.42	0d	1	1.13mi
36805 Alder St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1189	$2,700	$2.27	21d	1	1.15mi
37707 57th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1454	$2,700	$1.86	0d	1	1.16mi
5335 Carlo Ct Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.5	1922	$3,450	$1.80	4d	1	1.28mi
36521 Windtree Cir Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1371	$3,000	$2.19	23d	1	1.30mi
37835 58th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,800	$2.27	0d	1	1.36mi
5720 Opal Ave Palmdale, CA	4.0	3.0	1996	$3,500	$1.75	0d	1	1.36mi
36453 Clearwood Ct Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,850	$1.73	0d	1	1.38mi
6012 Sandpiper Pl Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1645	$2,798	$1.70	0d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 591-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $139,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,999 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,999 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,999 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $149,999 Active
18. 2025-09-28
    historical
19. 2025-07-30
    price $134,999
20. 2025-06-17
    listed $139,999 Active
21. 2024-09-04
    price $145,000
22. 2024-08-20
    price $147,000
23. 2019-11-27
    historical
24. 2019-11-27
    status Pending
25. 2019-11-01
    listed $70,000 Active
26. 2018-12-27
    historical
27. 2018-10-12
    soldstatus $57,000 Closed
28. 2018-08-27
    status Pending
29. 2018-04-24
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥99°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,058
• − Management: −$3,058
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $17,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,200
• After-tax cash flow: $14,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,639
• Household income: $85,954
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 21% Black 13% White 11% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 55% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.00%
• Current HPI: 394.1607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $149,999 AVMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $134,999 AVMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $139,999 CRMLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $145,000 AVMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $147,000 AVMLS
• 2019-11-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2019-11-27 Pending — AVMLS
• 2019-11-01 Listed $70,000 AVMLS
• 2018-12-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2018-10-12 Sold (MLS) $57,000 AVMLS
• 2018-08-27 Pending — AVMLS
• 2018-04-24 Listed $60,000 AVMLS