Rio Grande Plan · Venus, TX 76084

$285,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily · 725 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 725 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $285,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,953.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL); Venus Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 491 students, 80% FRL); Venus H S (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 725 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 725 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,962 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 725 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,953
• List price: $285,900
• Delta: -3.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Julian Davis Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,218 (0%)	1mo	$292,900	$240	83
307 Julian Davis Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,218 (0%)	2mo	$279,900	$230	78
415 Watson Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,218 (0%)	6mo	$278,900	$229	73
432 Gib Woodall Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,218 (0%)	6mo	$307,900	$253	72
210 Julian Davis Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	1mo	$307,900	$223	60
205 Julian Davis Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	2mo	$307,900	$223	59
320 Julian Davis Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	2mo	$301,900	$219	56
418 Watson Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	3mo	$294,900	$214	55
317 Julian Davis Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	2mo	$307,900	$223	55
113 Rushmore Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+10%)	4mo	$259,999	$195	54
412 Watson Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	7mo	$313,900	$228	51
424 Gib Woodall Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	6mo	$302,900	$220	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $82,904
• Equity at exit: $210,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $256,463
• Equity at exit: $405,802

Cash invested: $82,587 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,424/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $238,873

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-286	+0% $-388	+5% $-489	+10% $-591
Rent	-10% $-553	-5% $-470	+0% $-388	+5% $-305	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-239	-0.5pp $-313	base $-388	+0.5pp $-464	+1.0pp $-542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,738
• Closing costs: $8,849
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	0d	1	0.04mi
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	45d	1	0.47mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	5d	1	0.52mi
427 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,965	$1.61	45d	1	0.52mi
501 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,945	$1.60	45d	1	0.54mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	0.79mi
645 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	45d	1	0.79mi
656-660 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	0d	1	0.84mi
663 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	0d	1	0.84mi
705 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,500	$1.32	26d	1	0.86mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	9d	1	0.86mi
723 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	45d	1	0.87mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	45d	1	0.88mi
733 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	26d	1	0.89mi
737 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	26d	1	0.90mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	17d	1	0.90mi
721 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	0d	1	0.90mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	45d	1	0.91mi
729 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,995	$1.53	45d	1	0.92mi
748 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	45d	1	0.92mi
704 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,850	$1.36	46d	1	0.96mi
712 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	26d	1	0.97mi
261 Heritage Hills Pkwy Venus, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,305	$2.53	0d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,900 Active 725 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,900 Active 722 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,900 Active 721 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,900 Active 720 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,900 Active 719 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,900 Active 717 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,900 Active 716 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,900 Active 713 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $285,900 Active 712 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 711 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 708 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 707 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 706 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 705 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 704 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $289,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

17. 2026-02-23
    price $279,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

18. 2025-09-19
    price $283,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

19. 2025-07-03
    price $302,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

20. 2025-04-04
    price $299,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

21. 2025-04-01
    price $308,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

22. 2025-01-04
    price $304,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

23. 2024-10-01
    price $300,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

24. 2024-08-02
    price $297,900 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

25. 2024-06-26
    listed $294,900 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Introducing the Rio Grande floor plan, now available in the wonderful community of Patriot Estates. This single-story home features an open-concept design tailored for family life. From the expansive master suite to the fully fenced backyard, you will love every inch of this home. With a host of desirable upgrades, the Rio Grande offers a delightful living experience, making it an ideal choice for homeowners seeking comfort and modern amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,522
• − Property taxes: −$4,424
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$8,580
• Taxable loss: −$9,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,385
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $289,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $279,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $283,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $308,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $304,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $300,900 Zillow
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $297,900 Zillow
• 2024-06-26 Listed $294,900 Zillow