215 Western · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92321

$330,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 982 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1950 3,120 sqft lot $336/sqft · 10% below area Est $365k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location !! OWNER WILL CARRY WITH A LARGE DOWN PAYMENT. This quaint and cozy home is just a hop, skip and jump to a well known malt shop in Cedar Glen. This property has been used for residental living but is zoned for COMMERCIAL use as well. Come and enjoy a crackling fire in the rock fireplace as you sink your toes into the new carpet. This home has been nicely updated with granit counters in the kitchen, newer windows and freshly painted throughout. Two bedrooms and a full bath accommodate the second floor. The third bedroom is large and has an attached 1/2 bathroom. New blinds on all windows make this home move-in-ready. The attached garage enters into the kitchen that makes it conveneint for unloading groceries. Easy access off main road. Come and enjoy the fresh mountain air.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Freshly painted
• Rock fireplace

Tags

• ZONED FOR COMMERCIAL USE
• ROCK FIREPLACE
• NEW CARPET
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEWER WINDOWS
• FRESHLY PAINTED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lake Arrowhead Elementary (421 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $330k implies a 1038% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,110 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,674
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -9.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
196 Ponderosa Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	962 (-2%)	1mo	$325,000	$338	78
229 Oak Dr	0.37mi	2/1.5	1,029 (+5%)	5mo	$380,000	$369	69
29167 arrowhead Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	912 (-7%)	19mo	$325,400	$357	64
29251 Lake Brook Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+12%)	11mo	$215,000	$195	59
273 Oak Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	892 (-9%)	23mo	$370,000	$415	56
29548 Hook Crk	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,090 (+11%)	5mo	$400,000	$367	52
28901 Palisades Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (+6%)	15mo	$950,000	$913	51
28810 Cedar	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	884 (-10%)	4mo	$435,000	$492	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $154,098
• Equity at exit: $297,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $473,605
• Equity at exit: $641,117

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92321

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,568

Max offer price $259,259

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-214	-5% $-307	+0% $-400	+5% $-494	+10% $-587
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-482	+0% $-400	+5% $-319	+10% $-238
Rate	-1.0pp $-234	-0.5pp $-317	base $-400	+0.5pp $-486	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29184 Lake Brook Ave Cedar Glen, CA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,995	$2.16	45d	1	0.13mi
29180 North Dr Unit 1 bedroom Cedar Glen, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	0d	1	0.80mi
209 Cool Creek Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.5	1012	$2,500	$2.47	1d	1	1.07mi
112 Rockledge Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1058	$2,190	$2.07	6d	1	1.12mi
587 Arrowhead Villa Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,350	$2.72	45d	1	1.15mi
28101 Lakes Edge Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,600	$2.35	26d	1	1.29mi
545 W Victoria Ct Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,000	$2.33	26d	1	1.32mi
28380 Larchmont Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	20d	1	1.40mi
28393 Larchmont Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,200	$1.99	45d	1	1.41mi
701 Pinnacle Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,995	$1.86	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $330,000 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Great location !! OWNER WILL CARRY WITH A LARGE DOWN PAYMENT. This quaint and cozy home is just a hop, skip and jump to a well known malt shop in Cedar Glen. This property has been used for residental living but is zoned for COMMERCIAL use as well. Come and enjoy a crackling fire in the rock fireplace as you sink your toes into the new carpet. This home has been nicely updated with granit counters in the kitchen, newer windows and freshly painted throughout. Two bedrooms and a full bath accommodate the second floor. The third bedroom is large and has an attached 1/2 bathroom. New blinds on all windows make this home move-in-ready. The attached garage enters into the kitchen that makes it conveneint for unloading groceries. Easy access off main road. Come and enjoy the fresh mountain air.

17. 2026-03-21
    listed $340,000 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Great location !! OWNER WILL CARRY WITH A LARGE DOWN PAYMENT. This quaint and cozy home is just a hop, skip and jump to a well known malt shop in Cedar Glen. This property has been used for residental living but is zoned for COMMERCIAL use as well. Come and enjoy a crackling fire in the rock fireplace as you sink your toes into the new carpet. This home has been nicely updated with granit counters in the kitchen, newer windows and freshly painted throughout. Two bedrooms and a full bath accommodate the second floor. The third bedroom is large and has an attached 1/2 bathroom. New blinds on all windows make this home move-in-ready. The attached garage enters into the kitchen that makes it conveneint for unloading groceries. Easy access off main road. Come and enjoy the fresh mountain air.

18. 1977-05-27
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$580/yr (+$48/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥85°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$10,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• City population: 6,246
• Population (ZIP): 828

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.53%
• Current HPI: 510.4737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1037.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $330,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $340,000 CRMLS
• 1977-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,928 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.