437 Oxen Ln · West Fork, AR 72774

$278,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,459 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2020 7,840 sqft lot Est $251k · 11% over $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New construction split floor plan, stainless steel appliances, privacy fence, gutters, mini blinds, 3 bed 2 bath home, 2 car garage.

Key facts

• Ceiling fans
• Eat-in kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PROGRAMMABLE THERMOSTAT
• CEILING FANS
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee (listed); Community features include curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer available (private sewer)
• Home design: Single-story home; Residential zoning; Entry and layout suitable for resale (under 25 years old)
• Construction: Brick, rock, and vinyl siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Resale construction (less than 25 years old)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered patio/porch; Wood privacy fencing in back yard; Cleared and landscaped yard; Corner lot in a subdivision; Shared road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave with hood fan; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker; Granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms arranged in a split layout
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Granite counters; Split-bedroom floorplan; Window treatments; Double-pane vinyl windows with blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $278k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.5% in West Fork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#126 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenland School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #168 of 238 in AR (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.24%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,948
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
443 E Buckboard Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$275,000	$172	77
478 Harness Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+13%)	12mo	$275,000	$167	66
518 Harness Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+13%)	19mo	$275,000	$167	58
488 Wagon Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+15%)	22mo	$294,000	$176	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $9,625
• Equity at exit: $41,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $78,676
• Equity at exit: $24,036

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72774

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,355/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,251

Max offer price $278,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $278,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $278,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $278,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-27
   listed $278,000 Active
5. 2020-08-31
   soldstatus $199,200 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   New construction split floor plan, stainless steel appliances, privacy fence, gutters, mini blinds, 3 bed 2 bath home, 2 car garage.

6. 2020-07-24
   listed $199,200 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   New construction split floor plan, stainless steel appliances, privacy fence, gutters, mini blinds, 3 bed 2 bath home, 2 car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$2,355
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,204
• − Management: −$3,204
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable income: $6,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,475
• After-tax cash flow: $8,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenland School District
• NCES district ID: 0506930
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,761
• Composite: 23.11/100
• National rank: #7960
• State rank: #168 of 238 in AR

Livability — West Fork

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #11748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,298

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.93%
• Current HPI: 267.4622
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+39.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $278,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) $199,200 NWARMLS
• 2020-07-24 Listed $199,200 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,355 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.