3105 Rio Arriza Loop · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$349,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2008 4,792 sqft lot $134/sqft · 10% below area Est $390k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ONLY $134/sqft!! Make a statement from the moment you arrive. A grand double panel glass-and-metal front door sets a luxurious tone, welcoming you into a soaring grand entrance that commands attention. The sweeping curved staircase rises elegantly to an upstairs balcony -- the perfect perch to take in breathtaking sunsets and the vast New Mexico sky. Every detail has been thoughtfully curated. The main living area features warm wood floors and a cozy gas fireplace -- the perfect backdrop for evenings in. The main-floor primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a spa-inspired bath offering a double vanity, a spacious shower stall, a soaking garden tub, and two generous closets. Upstairs

Key facts

• Grand entrance
• Curved staircase
• Upstairs balcony

Tags

• DOUBLE PANEL GLASS DOOR
• GRAND ENTRANCE
• CURVED STAIRCASE
• UPSTAIRS BALCONY
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SPA INSPIRED BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Covered patio/porch; Back yard fencing; Flat roof; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows; Fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highland Elementary (744 students, 100% FRL); Camino Real Middle (965 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,909 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.16%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,611
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -10.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-71,753
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-78,643
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,598/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,775

Max offer price $303,540

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-159	+0% $-257	+5% $-356	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-354	+0% $-257	+5% $-161	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-169	base $-257	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4025 Boardwalk Rd Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.5	2530	$2,495	$0.99	23d	1	0.38mi
4899 Galina Dr Las Cruces, NM	5.0	3.5	3646	$2,799	$0.77	45d	1	0.42mi
3350 Longview Ln Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	2135	$1,895	$0.89	45d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 993-char remark
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $349,000 Active 993-char remark
3. 2026-01-10
   price $364,900
4. 2025-09-19
   price $395,000
5. 2018-07-16
   soldstatus
6. 2018-07-16
   soldstatus
7. 2018-05-14
   listed $249,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,598 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,792 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$2,598
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$9,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,246
• After-tax cash flow: $-842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+40.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-09 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-19 Listed $349,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $364,900 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $395,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2018-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-16 Sold (MLS) — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2018-05-14 Listed $249,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,598 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.