11946 Detar Ct · Willis, TX 77378

$139,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $172/sqft · 12% below area Est $159k · 12% under $42/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVELY NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Great Location with No Back Neighbors for Extra Privacy! Welcoming Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Island Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Walk-In Pantry! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bath with Tub/Shower Combo & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedroom! Zoned to Willis ISD! Awesome Community with Pickleball Court, Covered Pavilion, Playground, & Walking Trails! Hurry and Call Today!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Pickleball court
• Island kitchen

Tags

• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PICKLEBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward B Cannan El (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 74% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,490
• List price: $139,990
• Delta: -12.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11911 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	2mo	$149,990	$184	96
11931 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	4mo	$139,890	$171	94
11955 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	4mo	$149,990	$184	94
14538 William Trails Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	816 (0%)	6mo	$144,990	$178	93
14546 William Trails Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	1mo	$144,990	$178	92
11922 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	0mo	$154,990	$191	92
11947 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$158,990	$196	91
11939 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$154,990	$191	91
11930 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$159,990	$197	91
11907 Detar Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	2mo	$153,990	$189	91
14594 William Trails Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	7mo	$156,990	$193	85
12046 William Trails Circle Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	813 (-0%)	9mo	$163,990	$202	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-18,672
• Equity at exit: $20,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-18,428
• Equity at exit: $12,104

Cash invested: $39,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $139,990

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $155	+0% $106	+5% $58	+10% $10
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $51	+0% $106	+5% $162	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $142	base $106	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,998
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14626 New Village Dr Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	813	$1,300	$1.60	0d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,990 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,990 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,990 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,990 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,990 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,990 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,990 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,990 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,990 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,990 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,990 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $139,990 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    LOVELY NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Great Location with No Back Neighbors for Extra Privacy! Welcoming Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Island Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Walk-In Pantry! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bath with Tub/Shower Combo & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedroom! Zoned to Willis ISD! Awesome Community with Pickleball Court, Covered Pavilion, Playground, & Walking Trails! Hurry and Call Today!

16. 2026-04-12
    price $154,990 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    LOVELY NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Great Location with No Back Neighbors for Extra Privacy! Welcoming Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Island Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Walk-In Pantry! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bath with Tub/Shower Combo & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedroom! Zoned to Willis ISD! Awesome Community with Pickleball Court, Covered Pavilion, Playground, & Walking Trails! Hurry and Call Today!

17. 2026-04-06
    price $157,990 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    LOVELY NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Great Location with No Back Neighbors for Extra Privacy! Welcoming Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Island Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Walk-In Pantry! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bath with Tub/Shower Combo & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedroom! Zoned to Willis ISD! Awesome Community with Pickleball Court, Covered Pavilion, Playground, & Walking Trails! Hurry and Call Today!

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $160,990 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    LOVELY NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Great Location with No Back Neighbors for Extra Privacy! Welcoming Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Excellent Split Plan Layout! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Island Kitchen with Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, & Walk-In Pantry! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bath with Tub/Shower Combo & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedroom! Zoned to Willis ISD! Awesome Community with Pickleball Court, Covered Pavilion, Playground, & Walking Trails! Hurry and Call Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$4,072
• Taxable loss: −$980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Granite countertops are durable and timeless, adding value to the home.
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A newer, more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Granite countertops are durable and timeless, adding value to the home. ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — A newer, more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $139,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $154,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $157,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $160,990 HARMLS