6884 Fast Gun Ln · Point Baker, FL 32570

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2025 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautiful brand new 4-bedroom, 2-bath Craftsman-style home that blends timeless charm with modern updates. From the moment you walk in, you’ll notice the thoughtful layout and fresh finishes throughout. The split floor plan offers both comfort and privacy, with the spacious primary suite and an additional bedroom on one side of the home. The primary bedroom features a private en-suite bathroom. On the opposite side of the home, you’ll find two additional bedrooms with a conveniently located bathroom situated between them—designed for functionality and ease of access. Enjoy luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, giving the home a clean, cohesive look t

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: 2 spaces per unit
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: New construction; Detached property; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building area approximately 1,456
• Exterior features: Porch; Yard building (additional structure); Central access lot feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen (updated within the past 1–5 years, new build condition noted); Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approximately 9.1' x 10.7'); Bedroom on the first floor (approximately 11.2' x 9.9'); Second bedroom on the first floor (approximately 10.5' x 10.1')
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, updated within the past 1–5 years (new build condition noted)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s) for additional cooling
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fan(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

🏗️ New construction. The $160,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,344.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($174/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Point Baker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#735 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6980 Trailride N	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-3%)	5mo	$286,000	$203	79
6956 Trailride N	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-3%)	12mo	$250,000	$177	76
6807 Old West Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-2%)	9mo	$290,000	$203	74
6815 N Trailride	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,468 (+1%)	13mo	$208,000	$142	74
6818 Roundup Ln	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,377 (-5%)	4mo	$200,000	$145	73
6869 Roundup Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-3%)	16mo	$290,000	$205	71
6839 Fast Gun Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	20mo	$233,500	$173	66
6816 Fast Gun Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-14%)	4mo	$254,900	$204	62
6845 Trail Ride South	0.28mi	4/1.5	1,305 (-10%)	8mo	$199,000	$152	61
6850 Old West Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-9%)	21mo	$230,000	$174	54
6835 Chuckwagon Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-15%)	10mo	$180,000	$145	40
6800 Trailride N	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-15%)	18mo	$210,000	$169	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-40,769
• Equity at exit: $37,774

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-36,920
• Equity at exit: $21,905

Cash invested: $70,936 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,329
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,800/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $253,344

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $102	+0% $14	+5% $-73	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-74	+0% $14	+5% $103	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $79	base $14	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,336
• Closing costs: $7,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 681-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,191
• − Property taxes: −$3,800
• − Insurance: −$1,267
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − Depreciation: −$7,370
• Taxable loss: −$4,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$985
• After-tax cash flow: $1,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Point Baker

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #735
• US rank: #15840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Baker, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $160,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

-14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $18 · -90.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.