2405 E Atlantic St · Springfield, MO 65803

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1980 0.28 ac lot $125/sqft · 12% below area Est $187k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms with a master suite having a walk-in shower, detached garage/shop in the back with completely fenced front and backyard! Property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Walk-in shower
• Detached garage

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED FRONT AND BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Square footage: 1,320
• Financial info: Tax information available
• HOA & community: HOA details not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Construction details not specified
• Exterior features: Located in the Webster Park subdivision; Lot approximately 0.28 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not specified
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-592/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weller Elem. (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #879 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 297 students, 83% FRL); Pipkin Middle (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #324 of 391 statewide, top 83%, 340 students, 82% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 46% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $123,880 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,801
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -11.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1815 N Marlan Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-2%)	1mo	$225,000	$174	84
2312 E Atlantic St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,187 (-10%)	2mo	$94,900	$80	76
1820 N Marlan Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+10%)	2mo	$249,900	$172	70
2353 E Locust St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,304 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$142	67
1638 N Engel Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-8%)	4mo	$220,000	$182	62
1660 N Marlan Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,177 (-11%)	2mo	$219,900	$187	62
2541 E Commercial St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-10%)	3mo	$155,000	$130	62
1623 N Engel Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	2mo	$215,000	$179	61
2215 E Sharon St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,292 (-2%)	2mo	$198,000	$153	60
2268 E Parkwood St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-7%)	2mo	$224,900	$183	57
2611 E Pacific St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-13%)	2mo	$224,900	$197	55
1817 N Burton Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,178 (-11%)	3mo	$149,000	$126	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-28,364
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,364
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65803

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,301

Max offer price $156,286

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-3	+0% $-49	+5% $-96	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-98	+0% $-49	+5% $0	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-7	base $-49	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2323 E Division St Springfield, MO	4.0	2.0	1156	$1,495	$1.29	25d	1	0.53mi
2650 N Barnes Ave Unit A 23 Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	46d	1	0.76mi
2650 N Barnes Ave Apt C22 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	46d	1	0.83mi
1710 E Commercial St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$775	$0.82	46d	1	0.89mi
2264 E Nora St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1366	$1,200	$0.88	16d	1	0.90mi
2337 N Delaware Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	876	$1,195	$1.36	46d	1	1.15mi
1501 E Blaine St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	958	$695	$0.73	25d	1	1.17mi
2221 N Weller Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,395	$1.15	16d	1	1.18mi
STE Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,600	$1.08	16d	2	1.21mi
1447 E Oakwood Ln Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,395	$1.42	46d	1	1.24mi
2054 N Rogers Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	888	$925	$1.04	16d	1	1.34mi
2313 N Rogers Ave Unit 1 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	882	$950	$1.08	16d	1	1.41mi
531 N Oak Grove Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	1184	$925	$0.78	46d	1	1.46mi
1339 E Division St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,350	$1.14	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $165,000 Active 179-char remark
18. 2023-06-30
    price $179,900
19. 2023-05-24
    listed $189,900 Active
20. 2016-01-09
    listed $97,462

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$473/yr (+$39/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$842
• After-tax cash flow: $250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 42,882
• Household income: $50,572
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.08%
• Current HPI: 205.0439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+69.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $165,000 SOMO
• 2023-06-30 Price Changed $179,900 SOMO
• 2023-05-24 Listed $189,900 SOMO
• 2016-01-09 Listed $97,462 SOMO

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,127 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.