623 Chestnut Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1925 5,753 sqft lot Est $220k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So much potential and possibilities but house does need total rehab. It is in a great neighborhood and is close to NU, DeVeaux Field, parks & new train station. Being sold "As is".

Key facts

• 5,753 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1925

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.05%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2863 Macklem Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,451 (-10%)	6mo	$109,999	$76	69
3023 Delancey Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+7%)	8mo	$290,000	$168	65
3823 Macklem Ave	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,566 (-3%)	2mo	$272,000	$174	60
3040 Madison Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,793 (+11%)	0mo	$257,500	$144	57
4026 Barton St	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,645 (+2%)	5mo	$227,000	$138	56
1002 Centre Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-4%)	17mo	$15,000	$10	56
2817 10th St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-10%)	8mo	$70,000	$48	54
914 Vanderbilt Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,707 (+6%)	7mo	$150,000	$88	53
952 Vanderbilt Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,680 (+4%)	12mo	$211,500	$126	52
3043 Lewiston Rd	0.31mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,805 (+12%)	12mo	$270,000	$150	49
3915 Deveaux St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-10%)	0mo	$120,000	$82	49
3935 Deveaux St	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,802 (+12%)	10mo	$244,500	$136	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $403
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $24,239
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,262/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $315	+0% $283	+5% $252	+10% $221
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $220	+0% $283	+5% $346	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $311	base $283	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	0.36mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	45d	1	0.71mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	1.08mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	45d	1	1.32mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	1.36mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	1.39mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   listed $109,900 Active
3. 2024-03-20
   soldstatus $520,000
4. 2016-05-20
   soldstatus $24,500 Closed Sale or Rented 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   So much potential and possibilities but house does need total rehab. It is in a great neighborhood and is close to NU, DeVeaux Field, parks & new train station. Being sold "As is".

5. 2016-03-21
   status Pending Sale 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   So much potential and possibilities but house does need total rehab. It is in a great neighborhood and is close to NU, DeVeaux Field, parks & new train station. Being sold "As is".

6. 2016-02-23
   listed $35,000 Active 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   So much potential and possibilities but house does need total rehab. It is in a great neighborhood and is close to NU, DeVeaux Field, parks & new train station. Being sold "As is".

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,262 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,262 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$4,262
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $1,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$461
• After-tax cash flow: $2,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+214.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-20 Sold (MLS) $24,500 WNYREIS
• 2016-03-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-02-23 Listed $35,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,262 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.