4729 Syrian Hill Rd · McGraw, NY 13101

$159,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1812 4.48 ac lot Est $143k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an incredible opportunity to own a country home with 19.48 acres with incredible views and a great back deck to watch wild life and sunsets. Lots of work has been done to the home. New furnace, updated electrical, insulation is throughout, open up main floor. New doors and much​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ more.

Key facts

• 3 season room
• Covered front porch
• Large deck

Tags

• 20 ACRES OF WOODED PRIVACY
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• 3 SEASON ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: resale

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Faces unspecified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Asphalt roof; Built as existing (year built details: existing)
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Secluded, wooded lot; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; See remarks / other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#411 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Mcgraw Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #252 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $160k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1812 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,969 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1812 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,376
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4662 Maybury Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	4mo	$149,000	$103	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $27,043
• Equity at exit: $89,285

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $89,836
• Equity at exit: $152,960

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13101

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $140,571

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-79	+0% $-134	+5% $-190	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-183	+0% $-134	+5% $-86	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-54	-0.5pp $-94	base $-134	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $159,999 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   status $159,999 Active Under Contract 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,999 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,999 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   remarks 531-char remark
6. 2026-06-05
   listed $159,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgraw Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618840
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,404
• Composite: 50.37/100
• National rank: #1875
• State rank: #252 of 590 in NY

Livability — McGraw

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #7091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,221

Population outlook (Cortland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,543 people
• By 2030: 46,107 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 43,122 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 40,216 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 34,717 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 28,953 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cortland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 46.8% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 10.0pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+6.7 2012: D+8.8 2008: D+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.86%
• Current HPI: 305.3272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+61.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $159,999 CNYIS
• 2020-08-21 Sold (MLS) $75,000 IBRMLS
• 2020-08-21 Sold (MLS) $75,000 IBRMLS
• 2020-08-21 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CNYIS
• 2020-01-07 Listed $99,000 IBRMLS
• 2020-01-07 Listed $99,000 IBRMLS
• 2020-01-07 Listed $99,000 CNYIS
• 2019-12-04 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-05-04 Listed $99,000 CNYIS
• 2018-05-04 Listed $99,000 IBRMLS