5111 W Illinois Ave · Midland, TX 79703

$450,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,401 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1981 10,062 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Incredible opportunity! 2 remodeled units! MOVE IN READY! Fresh paint, recent flooring, light fixtures and quartz! UPDATED ELECTRICAL! 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, 2 fireplaces, 2 water heaters. .. 3 GARAGE SPACES! Absolutely beautiful!! SEPARATE FENCED BACK YARDS, shade tree, FABULOUS SEPARATE GATED COURTYARDS! LIVE IN ONE AND RENT THE OTHER, or rent them both! CLOSE TO LOOP 250, SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS & STADIUM. Virtual Staging

Key facts

• Remodeled units
• Close to loop 250
• Fenced back yards

Tags

• REMODELED UNITS
• FENCED BACK YARDS
• SEPARATE GATED COURTYARDS
• CLOSE TO LOOP 250
• SHOPPING
• RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Duplex (residential income); Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Range
• Bedrooms: One 3-bedroom unit; One 2-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: One 3-bedroom unit with 2 bathrooms; One 2-bedroom unit with 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($940/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $376k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 448 students, 69% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,765/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 417% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $376,500 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-79,039
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-105,346
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,184/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$791
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,666

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 93%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,821
1× unit	3	1	$1,945
Total (2 units)			$3,765

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4515 Monty Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	43d	1	0.66mi
303 Koufax Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,950	$1.41	21d	1	0.73mi
4317 Tanner Dr Unit A Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2220	$2,650	$1.19	21d	1	0.85mi
509 Wagner Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$3,000	$1.44	43d	1	0.93mi
6020 Spahn St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,800	$1.51	43d	1	1.04mi
619 Victory Pkwy Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$3,200	$1.75	13d	1	1.43mi
3900 Douglas Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$2,800	$1.43	43d	1	1.45mi
6418 Patriot Pkwy Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2178	$3,200	$1.47	43d	1	1.47mi
6614 Jamestown St Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2284	$3,000	$1.31	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $450,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 431-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $450,000 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    remarks 415-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    remarks 380-char remark
18. 2026-05-31
    listed $450,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,184 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,235 · $686/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,051/yr (+$338/mo · 96.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$4,184
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,614
• − Management: −$3,614
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$6,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,627
• After-tax cash flow: $2,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33233.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $450,000 PBBOR
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $425,000 PBBOR
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $449,000 PBBOR
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $445,000 PBBOR
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,350 RENT.
• 2021-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,184 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.