204 Academy Ave · Federalsburg, MD 21632

$21,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 368 Days on market

Built 1895 3,024 sqft lot $21/sqft · 86% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! This property is being sold AS-IS and is priced for land value or a full renovation. The existing structure requires extensive repairs or complete tear-down—ideal for experienced builders, contractors, or savvy investors looking for a project. Buyer to verify zoning, permits, potential use. Buyer Broker/Agent and/or Buyer must do their own due diligence to verify if the existing structure or land is suitable for building. . No warranties, guarantees, or repairs will be made by seller.

Key facts

• 3,024 sq ft lot
• Built 1895
• Listed 367 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $21k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $21k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 71.1% vs local median 4.8% in Federalsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#266 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $145 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $467 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 71.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 231.52%
• DSCR: 11.30
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,331
• List price: $21,000
• Delta: -85.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Holt St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-2%)	16mo	$194,000	$192	69
308 Park Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0	952 (-7%)	22mo	$168,000	$176	64
201 Denton Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,051 (+3%)	9mo	$110,000	$105	58
313 Reliance Ave	0.43mi	1/1.0 (-1)	988 (-4%)	16mo	$158,000	$160	56
320 Park Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+11%)	17mo	$224,900	$197	54
221 Denton Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,078 (+5%)	1mo	$185,000	$172	52
206 Denton Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-6%)	14mo	$250,000	$260	46
203 Bernard Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+3%)	12mo	$225,000	$213	46
112 Vernon Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0	884 (-14%)	24mo	$115,000	$130	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $42,655
• Equity at exit: $3,865

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.49×
• Total profit: $96,947
• Equity at exit: $3,101

Cash invested: $5,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21632

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$110
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $192/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $711

Max offer price $21,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,250
• Closing costs: $630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $21,000 Active 368 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $21,000 Active 367 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $21,000 Active 366 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $21,000 Active 365 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $21,000 Active 363 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $21,000 Active 362 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $21,000 Active 359 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $21,000 Active 358 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $24,500 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,500 Active 354 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,500 Active 353 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,500 Active 352 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,500 Active 351 DOM
14. 2025-09-04
    price $24,500 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Investor special! This property is being sold AS-IS and is priced for land value or a full renovation. The existing structure requires extensive repairs or complete tear-down—ideal for experienced builders, contractors, or savvy investors looking for a project. Buyer to verify zoning, permits, potential use. Buyer Broker/Agent and/or Buyer must do their own due diligence to verify if the existing structure or land is suitable for building. . No warranties, guarantees, or repairs will be made by seller.

15. 2025-06-13
    listed $35,000 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Investor special! This property is being sold AS-IS and is priced for land value or a full renovation. The existing structure requires extensive repairs or complete tear-down—ideal for experienced builders, contractors, or savvy investors looking for a project. Buyer to verify zoning, permits, potential use. Buyer Broker/Agent and/or Buyer must do their own due diligence to verify if the existing structure or land is suitable for building. . No warranties, guarantees, or repairs will be made by seller.

16. 2016-10-06
    historical Withdrawn
17. 2016-10-06
    historical
18. 2014-12-04
    listed Active
19. 2014-12-04
    listed $10,000
20. 1987-11-24
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $210 · $18/mo
• Expected delta: +$18/yr (+$2/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,176
• − Property taxes: −$192
• − Insurance: −$5,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − Depreciation: −$611
• Taxable income: $8,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,158
• After-tax cash flow: $6,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Federalsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #13461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Federalsburg, MD
• Population (ZIP): 6,227

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 25% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.22%
• Current HPI: 301.4384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+22.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $24,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-12-04 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-12-04 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $192 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.