7648 Buffet Bight Ct · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$711,607

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,445 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 3-car garage $291/sqft · 16% below area Est $850k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story home features an airy den off the foyer, followed by an open living space with access to a lanai for outdoor entertaining. In addition to the luxe owner's suite, there is a secondary suite and a spare bedroom. A three-car garage offers extra storage or versatile needs.

Key facts

• Three-car garage
• Access to lanai
• Luxe owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• ACCESS TO LANAI
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• SECONDARY SUITE
• THREE-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $712k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $441k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $386k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $386k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1687 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($626k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,027 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.25%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $849,846
• List price: $711,607
• Delta: -16.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16113 Tradewind Ter	0.23mi	3/3.0	2,587 (+6%)	1mo	$880,000	$340	79
16228 Tradewind Ter	0.15mi	3/3.0	2,650 (+8%)	2mo	$872,500	$329	77
4967 Seafoam Trl	0.50mi	3/3.0	2,439 (-0%)	2mo	$725,000	$297	75
15335 Serene Shores Loop	0.56mi	3/3.0	2,439 (-0%)	0mo	$625,000	$256	73
15909 Tradewind Ter	0.33mi	3/3.0	2,650 (+8%)	3mo	$690,000	$260	68
16808 Harvest Moon Way	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (+4%)	2mo	$536,000	$211	59
4921 Surfside Cir	0.71mi	3/3.0	2,318 (-5%)	2mo	$830,000	$358	57
15306 Golden Beam Pl	0.65mi	3/3.0	2,647 (+8%)	1mo	$897,000	$339	56
16443 Paynes Mill Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,600 (+6%)	0mo	$530,000	$204	53
5325 Coral Reef Way	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,586 (+6%)	2mo	$540,000	$209	52
4925 Surfside Cir	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,210 (-10%)	1mo	$710,000	$321	50
15330 Golden Beam Pl	0.56mi	3/4.0	2,799 (+14%)	1mo	$665,000	$238	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-245,549
• Equity at exit: $106,103

10-year hold

• IRR: -86.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.06×
• Total profit: $-410,512
• Equity at exit: $61,527

Cash invested: $199,250 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 102 active · 55 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $699,602 ($291/sqft)
• Median days on market: 166 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1687
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,732
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$890 /mo · $10,674/yr
• Insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$811
• Net cashflow: $-1,868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,225

Max offer price $441,284

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,376	-5% $-1,622	+0% $-1,868	+5% $-2,114	+10% $-2,360
Rent	-10% $-2,173	-5% $-2,021	+0% $-1,868	+5% $-1,716	+10% $-1,563
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,510	-0.5pp $-1,687	base $-1,868	+0.5pp $-2,053	+1.0pp $-2,240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $177,902
• Closing costs: $21,348
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19226 Cherrystone Way #102 , FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,995	$1.42	51d	1	0.03mi
16464 Whale Grey Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,000	$2.05	164d	1	0.29mi
15835 Tradewind Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2356	$8,900	$3.78	138d	1	0.37mi
5127 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$4,200	$2.07	10d	1	0.39mi
5127 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2016	$3,700	$1.84	53d	1	0.39mi
15716 Barefoot Beach Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2027	$7,500	$3.70	10d	1	0.43mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	10d	1	0.47mi
5161 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$4,000	$1.82	164d	1	0.48mi
5210 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,975	$1.81	10d	1	0.54mi
5304 Grove Mill Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$3,200	$1.56	164d	1	0.55mi
15721 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1580	$6,500	$4.11	10d	1	0.55mi
15522 Islandwalk Ave Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2016	$4,750	$2.36	10d	1	0.59mi
5242 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2586	$3,650	$1.41	41d	1	0.60mi
5242 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2586	$3,700	$1.43	55d	1	0.60mi
16905 Sweetwater Village Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	4.0	3284	$5,300	$1.61	164d	1	0.62mi
16921 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2787	$3,800	$1.36	110d	1	0.67mi
5329 Halewood Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2728	$3,600	$1.32	110d	1	0.69mi
5409 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$3,500	$1.89	55d	1	0.70mi
17202 Cresswind Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1807	$4,850	$2.68	10d	1	0.70mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	164d	1	0.71mi
15021 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$8,500	$3.48	10d	1	0.72mi
4909 Oyster Pearl St Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2800	$10,000	$3.57	10d	1	0.77mi
4755 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1678	$4,200	$2.50	157d	1	0.79mi
4755 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1678	$4,200	$2.50	1d	1	0.79mi
15263 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,800	$1.49	119d	1	0.80mi
15016 Misty Water Xing Unit NA Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$3,195	$1.73	138d	1	0.82mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	157d	1	0.83mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	125d	1	0.84mi
15018 Oxford Grey Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$5,500	$2.71	164d	1	0.84mi
15171 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1925	$2,600	$1.35	7d	1	0.86mi
15245 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1880	$3,100	$1.65	10d	1	0.87mi
15245 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1880	$3,100	$1.65	37d	1	0.87mi
15245 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1880	$3,100	$1.65	7d	1	0.87mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	157d	1	0.87mi
17436 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$3,100	$1.68	10d	1	0.87mi
15167 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,500	$2.25	164d	1	0.88mi
4708 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$12,000	$6.25	157d	1	0.88mi
14753 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	151d	1	0.88mi
15228 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,000	$1.56	164d	1	0.89mi
14768 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,650	$1.41	10d	1	0.90mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 7648 Buffet Bight Ct, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211Listing modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $611,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area 2445

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (total)
• Interior features: Spec-built Summerville plan (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $711,607 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $711,607 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $711,607 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $711,607 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $711,607 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $711,607 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $711,607 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $711,607 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $711,607 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $711,607 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $711,607 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $711,607 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $711,607 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $711,607 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $711,607 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $711,607 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $711,607 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $711,607 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $711,607 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $711,607 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $711,607 Active 184 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $711,607 Active 183 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $711,607 Active 182 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $711,607 Active 181 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $711,607 Active 180 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $711,607 Active 179 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $711,607 Active 178 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $711,607 Active 177 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $711,607 Active 176 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $711,607 Active 175 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $711,607 Active 174 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $711,607 Active 173 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $711,607 Active 172 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $711,607 Active 171 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $711,607 Active 170 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $711,607 Active 169 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $711,607 Active 168 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $711,607 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $711,607 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $711,607 Active 165 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $711,607 Active 164 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $711,607 Active 163 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $711,607 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $711,607 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $711,607 Active 158 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $711,607 Active 157 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $711,607 Active 156 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $711,607 Active 155 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $711,607 Active 154 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $711,607 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,861
• − Property taxes: −$10,674
• − Insurance: −$3,558
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,706
• − Management: −$3,706
• − Depreciation: −$20,701
• Taxable loss: −$35,883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This spacious single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through exterior painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 7648 Buffet Bight Ct, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211Listing modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $611,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area 2445

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (total)
• Interior features: Spec-built Summerville plan (new construction)