104 Cedar Way · Whitney, TX 76692

$68,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2015 0.28 ac lot $78/sqft · 14% below area Est $80k · 14% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect lake getaway for a weekender, retiree, or couple. Very close to the lake – one access is a free park with a boat ramp called Cedar Creek Park and the other is the Old Fort Graham Park that has been abandon but you can still walk through it. This one bedroom, one bath singlewide sits on two treed lots with one being a corner lot. It has a storage shed and an attached carport. The front porch was enclosed by the previous owner but could easily be turned back into a porch. Perfect place to sit and watch the birds. All appliances convey. This one is priced to move!

Key facts

• Two treed lots
• Attached carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• LAKE GETAWAY
• BOAT RAMP
• TWO TREED LOTS
• CORNER LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• ATTACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.1% in Whitney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#282 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Whitney ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whitney El (393 students, 74% FRL); Whitney Middle (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 344 students, 62% FRL); Whitney H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 441 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $476 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,833 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.68%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,000
• List price: $68,900
• Delta: -13.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Bluegrass	0.29mi	2/2.0 (+1)	924 (+5%)	23mo	$61,650	$67	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $25,394
• Equity at exit: $10,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $69,248
• Equity at exit: $5,957

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76692

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $606

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $613	-5% $593	+0% $574	+5% $554	+10% $535
Rent	-10% $468	-5% $521	+0% $574	+5% $626	+10% $679
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $591	base $574	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
669 Fort Graham Whitney, TX	1.0	1.0	696	$1,300	$1.87	26d	1	0.52mi
117 Beachview Loop Whitney, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$1,295	$1.96	26d	1	0.63mi
13104 Range Ct Whitney, TX	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	0d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $68,900 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $68,900 Active Option Contract 60 DOM
3. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Option Contract 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Perfect lake getaway for a weekender, retiree, or couple. Very close to the lake – one access is a free park with a boat ramp called Cedar Creek Park and the other is the Old Fort Graham Park that has been abandon but you can still walk through it. This one bedroom, one bath singlewide sits on two treed lots with one being a corner lot. It has a storage shed and an attached carport. The front porch was enclosed by the previous owner but could easily be turned back into a porch. Perfect place to sit and watch the birds. All appliances convey. This one is priced to move!

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $68,900 Active 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Perfect lake getaway for a weekender, retiree, or couple. Very close to the lake – one access is a free park with a boat ramp called Cedar Creek Park and the other is the Old Fort Graham Park that has been abandon but you can still walk through it. This one bedroom, one bath singlewide sits on two treed lots with one being a corner lot. It has a storage shed and an attached carport. The front porch was enclosed by the previous owner but could easily be turned back into a porch. Perfect place to sit and watch the birds. All appliances convey. This one is priced to move!

5. 2020-09-22
   soldstatus Sold 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   What a jewel. This little home is ideal for a single person or a retired couple or a first home. Cute and spacious tip top condition. All kitchen appliances (frigidaire) convey. range, fridge, dishwasher, microwave. Washer Dryer (Kenmore) convey. Home and appliances are 2015 models. Bed and dresser convey as well as hutch and curio cabinet and porch furniture. This lovely home sits on 2 lots with shade trees a storage building near the lake and boat ramp. A rare find especially at this price with all it includes. Don't miss out on it. ADT Security system. 2 security night lights and each door on home has security lights. Property goes beyond the trees to the utility poles.

6. 2020-08-28
   status Pending 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   What a jewel. This little home is ideal for a single person or a retired couple or a first home. Cute and spacious tip top condition. All kitchen appliances (frigidaire) convey. range, fridge, dishwasher, microwave. Washer Dryer (Kenmore) convey. Home and appliances are 2015 models. Bed and dresser convey as well as hutch and curio cabinet and porch furniture. This lovely home sits on 2 lots with shade trees a storage building near the lake and boat ramp. A rare find especially at this price with all it includes. Don't miss out on it. ADT Security system. 2 security night lights and each door on home has security lights. Property goes beyond the trees to the utility poles.

7. 2020-08-25
   listed $57,000 Active 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   What a jewel. This little home is ideal for a single person or a retired couple or a first home. Cute and spacious tip top condition. All kitchen appliances (frigidaire) convey. range, fridge, dishwasher, microwave. Washer Dryer (Kenmore) convey. Home and appliances are 2015 models. Bed and dresser convey as well as hutch and curio cabinet and porch furniture. This lovely home sits on 2 lots with shade trees a storage building near the lake and boat ramp. A rare find especially at this price with all it includes. Don't miss out on it. ADT Security system. 2 security night lights and each door on home has security lights. Property goes beyond the trees to the utility poles.

8. 2007-08-21
   soldstatus
9. 2007-08-06
   historical
10. 2006-09-22
    listed $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $6,155
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $5,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845720
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,861
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5060
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #6568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,662

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.72%
• Current HPI: 252.9827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $68,900 NTREIS
• 2020-09-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-08-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-08-25 Listed $57,000 NTREIS
• 2007-08-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2007-08-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-09-22 Listed $79,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,065 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.