2954 Lenox Ave · Jacksonville, FL 32254

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1916 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Attention flippers, investors, and bargain hunters--this is the opportunity you've been waiting for! Situated in the Gillen neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,161 square feet of living space on a 0.23-acre double lot measuring approximately 100 x 102 feet. Opportunities like this are getting harder to find, especially at this price point! Built in 1916, this property is ready for a complete transformation. Whether you're looking for your next fix-and-flip project, a profitable resale opportunity, or a full-scale renovation, this property provides the perfect blank canvas to bring your vision to life. With city water and sewer already in place, you'll save valuable time an

Key facts

• City water and sewer
• Double lot
• Gillen neighborhood

Tags

• GILLEN NEIGHBORHOOD
• DOUBLE LOT
• CITY WATER AND SEWER
• EXPANDED OUTDOOR LIVING AREAS
• FUTURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.23 acres
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street and on-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level, entry on level 1
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link and other fencing; City street frontage with asphalt road

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,477/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 882% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.31%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,014
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2881 Lenox Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-8%)	2mo	$90,000	$84	79
2908 Spencer St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-5%)	0mo	$158,000	$144	78
3127 Dignan St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,197 (+3%)	2mo	$210,000	$175	72
724 James St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,207 (+4%)	2mo	$265,000	$220	71
3502 Dellwood Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-3%)	2mo	$155,000	$137	61
3053 Gilmore St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-13%)	0mo	$130,000	$129	59
156 Willow Branch Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,268 (+9%)	0mo	$105,000	$83	56
768 James St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+13%)	2mo	$253,000	$193	54
2790 Forbes St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (-4%)	0mo	$259,000	$233	52
3332 Dellwood Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,023 (-12%)	0mo	$184,000	$180	45
2550 Summit St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,083 (-7%)	0mo	$130,000	$120	45
3557 Dillon St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,035 (-11%)	1mo	$180,000	$174	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.41% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $54,541
• Equity at exit: $23,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.67×
• Total profit: $121,350
• Equity at exit: $37,391

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32254

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $497

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $802	-5% $788	+0% $774	+5% $759	+10% $745
Rent	-10% $657	-5% $715	+0% $774	+5% $832	+10% $890
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $786	base $774	+0.5pp $761	+1.0pp $747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Sunshine St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	2d	1	0.27mi
2980 Ernest St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,200	$1.30	24d	1	0.31mi
3118 Dignan St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1103	$1,148	$1.04	2d	1	0.33mi
3035 Fitzgerald St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,021	$1.13	4d	1	0.33mi
3159 Phyllis St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,561	$1.29	4d	1	0.35mi
809 McDuff Ave S Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$995	$0.99	5d	1	0.38mi
2812 Ernest St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1461	$2,800	$1.92	24d	1	0.39mi
3236 Phyllis St Unit 3244 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	24d	1	0.44mi
3250 Phyllis St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	24d	1	0.46mi
3036 Green St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,495	$1.62	24d	1	0.49mi
2759 Dellwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,100	$1.94	20d	1	0.50mi
3319 Hunt St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,295	$1.40	24d	1	0.52mi
717 King St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	18d	1	0.52mi
3233 Dellwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	24d	1	0.52mi
3318 Dignan St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	24d	1	0.54mi
3323 Nolan St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	927	$1,050	$1.13	2d	1	0.54mi
371 Smith St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,325	$1.26	5d	1	0.54mi
715 Ralph St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1338	$2,195	$1.64	5d	1	0.55mi
3347 Phyllis St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,395	$1.22	24d	1	0.57mi
3356 Lenox Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	899	$999	$1.11	24d	1	0.58mi
3312 Ernest St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,148	$1.08	24d	1	0.58mi
3352 Dillon St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,372	$1.12	24d	1	0.61mi
2803 College St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	15d	1	0.62mi
2701 Myra St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,595	$1.50	22d	1	0.63mi
3515 Dignan St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	915	$1,036	$1.13	4d	1	0.65mi
3313 Green St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,450	$1.37	8d	1	0.66mi
3353 Dellwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	934	$1,595	$1.71	18d	1	0.66mi
3550 Edison Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,463	$1.19	5d	1	0.66mi
2777 Post St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	24d	1	0.70mi
2561 Rosselle St #1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1287	$1,395	$1.08	24d	1	0.71mi
3233 Post St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	24d	1	0.71mi
676 Bridal Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	24d	1	0.73mi
3302 College St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1174	$1,095	$0.93	8d	1	0.73mi
2526 Phyllis St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.74mi
1060 Cherry St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1356	$1,623	$1.20	22d	1	0.74mi
2614 Dellwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$2,325	$2.07	5d	1	0.76mi
2410 McQuade St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,425	$1.09	24d	1	0.77mi
2611 Green St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,195	$1.64	24d	1	0.79mi
2611 Green St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,195	$1.64	15d	1	0.79mi
3352 College St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,550	$1.16	15d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $50,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $50,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $7,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,927
• Household income: $34,953
• Rent vs Own: 50.2% rent · 49.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 882.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Current HPI: 282.2981
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $50,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,318 · +22.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.