3071 Keuka Loop · Lakeland, FL 33810

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1999 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Homes of Merrit 3 Bedroom 2 bath split plan home with large front screened porch. Enjoy the easy care laminate flooring in much of the home with a nice large kitchen. The fenced in back yard has a great smith built type shed. The master bathroom has a shower and a garden tub with new carpeting in the master bedroom. Enjoy all of these features plus no HOA is required at this property.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• New doors
• Covered parking

Tags

• FENCED BACK YARD
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• COVERED PARKING
• LARGE SCREENED ROOM
• BUILT IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 0.28 acres
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Home faces north; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($519/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $245k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,788 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,463
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-31,185
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,494/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3205 J and J Manor Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,900	$1.21	3d	1	0.06mi
3230 J and J Manor Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,700	$1.61	3d	1	0.15mi
3122 Julia Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1097	$1,450	$1.32	3d	1	0.73mi
3211 Julia Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	938	$1,395	$1.49	23d	1	0.80mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lot 28 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,295	$1.45	2d	1	1.22mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$1,195	$1.33	2d	1	1.22mi
1906 Griffin Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1148	$2,339	$2.04	3d	11	1.40mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $252,410 Active
16. 2018-06-21
    soldstatus $100,900
17. 2018-06-15
    soldstatus $100,900 Sold 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Homes of Merrit 3 Bedroom 2 bath split plan home with large front screened porch. Enjoy the easy care laminate flooring in much of the home with a nice large kitchen. The fenced in back yard has a great smith built type shed. The master bathroom has a shower and a garden tub with new carpeting in the master bedroom. Enjoy all of these features plus no HOA is required at this property.

18. 2018-05-09
    status Pending 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Homes of Merrit 3 Bedroom 2 bath split plan home with large front screened porch. Enjoy the easy care laminate flooring in much of the home with a nice large kitchen. The fenced in back yard has a great smith built type shed. The master bathroom has a shower and a garden tub with new carpeting in the master bedroom. Enjoy all of these features plus no HOA is required at this property.

19. 2018-05-07
    listed $104,900 Active 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Homes of Merrit 3 Bedroom 2 bath split plan home with large front screened porch. Enjoy the easy care laminate flooring in much of the home with a nice large kitchen. The fenced in back yard has a great smith built type shed. The master bathroom has a shower and a garden tub with new carpeting in the master bedroom. Enjoy all of these features plus no HOA is required at this property.

20. 2016-02-29
    historical
21. 2015-10-06
    status Active
22. 2015-09-17
    status Pending
23. 2015-05-11
    listed $87,750 Active
24. 2007-12-01
    historical
25. 2007-01-23
    listed $121,000
26. 2000-06-28
    soldstatus $77,374

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$540/yr (+$45/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,494
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$896
• After-tax cash flow: $1,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+226.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $252,410 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $100,900 Public Records
• 2018-06-15 Sold (MLS) $100,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-07 Listed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-11 Listed $87,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-23 Listed $121,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $77,374 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,494 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.