1878 Stonechat · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$254,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $118/sqft · 6% below area Est $271k · 6% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1932 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,595 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,499
• List price: $254,999
• Delta: -6.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1834 Stonechat	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,162 (0%)	0mo	$249,500	$115	93
1912 Stonechat	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,210 (+2%)	1mo	$293,999	$133	89
1931 Wood Warbler	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-6%)	2mo	$282,999	$140	79
1908 Stonechat	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-12%)	0mo	$270,999	$142	73
2615 Diamondback	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,078 (-4%)	2mo	$310,000	$149	73
1906 Wood Warbler	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-6%)	3mo	$270,000	$133	72
1825 Stonechat	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-12%)	1mo	$247,999	$131	71
1915 Wood Warbler	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-12%)	3mo	$264,999	$139	70
3541 Hilts Trl	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+0%)	0mo	$243,999	$112	69
3934 Legend Park	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,854 (-14%)	0mo	$329,000	$177	69
3526 Hilts Trl	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+0%)	2mo	$243,999	$112	66
135 Bass	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,910 (-12%)	1mo	$269,900	$141	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-60,969
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-93,327
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1932
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $223,535

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-129	+0% $-217	+5% $-306	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-375	-5% $-296	+0% $-217	+5% $-139	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-153	base $-217	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	44d	1	0.11mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	44d	1	0.25mi
2831 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,849	$0.97	44d	1	0.26mi
2834 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,995	$1.05	25d	1	0.27mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	5d	1	0.27mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	2d	1	0.28mi
2932 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	5.0	3.5	2647	$2,250	$0.85	25d	1	0.30mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	3d	1	0.30mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	4d	1	0.30mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	25d	1	0.30mi
104 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2237	$1,995	$0.89	3d	1	0.32mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	5d	1	0.32mi
2802 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$1,995	$1.06	44d	1	0.33mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	2d	1	0.33mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	44d	1	0.33mi
3952 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1910	$1,795	$0.94	5d	1	0.36mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	44d	1	0.37mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	17d	1	0.40mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	0.42mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.47mi
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	18d	1	0.61mi
4107 Carraway St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2348	$2,000	$0.85	2d	1	0.66mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	0.71mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$2,095	$1.37	2d	131	0.73mi
646 Ridge Lawn Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$1,950	$1.04	25d	1	0.74mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	44d	1	0.75mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	25d	1	0.75mi
741 Farmers Dell New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2538	$2,199	$0.87	44d	1	0.76mi
3230 Mound Rdg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	44d	1	0.76mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	44d	1	0.78mi
2842 Ridge Berry Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	0.82mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	44d	1	0.84mi
4262 Winston Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.85mi
2060 Meadow Pipit New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1917	$1,950	$1.02	5d	1	0.86mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	25d	1	0.87mi
1320 Atticus Ave New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1702	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.87mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	44d	1	0.89mi
1973 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	17d	1	0.91mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	44d	1	0.94mi
2271 Garden Sun Pl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	2055	$2,200	$1.07	13d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,999 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,999 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,999 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,999 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,999 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $254,999 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,999 Price Change 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,999 Price Change 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,999 Price Change 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,999 Price Change 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,999 Price Change 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,999 Price Change 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on market $254,999 Price Change 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,999 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $274,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-05-07
    price $275,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $278,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-04-21
    price $283,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2026-04-17
    price $288,999 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

20. 2026-03-27
    listed $310,999 New 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    The Sherman - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,696
• After-tax cash flow: $-913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern features, offering a luxurious owner's suite and open-concept layout. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the fresh paint, landscaping, and smart home features that can be added to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $274,999 LERA
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $275,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $278,999 LERA
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $283,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $288,999 LERA
• 2026-03-27 Listed $310,999 LERA