909 Dutch St · Deer Park, TX 77536

$191,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1948 5,000 sqft lot $136/sqft · 6% below area Est $204k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

Key facts

• Generac generator
• Front porch
• Solar panels

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LANDSCAPING POTENTIAL
• MATURE TREES
• GENERAC GENERATOR
• SOLAR PANELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $191k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-663/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (5.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $191k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 40% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 801 students, 52% FRL); Deer Park J H (math 60% / reading 55%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 863 students, 40% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $191k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,718
• List price: $191,000
• Delta: -6.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 Ivy Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,409 (+0%)	3mo	$234,900	$167	84
118 E 10th St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-7%)	2mo	$230,000	$176	76
1110 Ivy Ave	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+3%)	1mo	$191,200	$131	74
1202 Dutch St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-15%)	1mo	$199,000	$166	70
321 Reta Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-1%)	4mo	$229,900	$164	67
825 Grove St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,215 (-14%)	1mo	$199,000	$164	65
402 Alice Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-6%)	2mo	$244,500	$184	63
917 Norwood St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+3%)	4mo	$275,000	$190	62
918 Martha St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,471 (+4%)	2mo	$236,000	$160	60
129 Sylvia St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-15%)	2mo	$150,000	$125	50
437 E 2nd St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-8%)	2mo	$199,999	$154	47
221 E 2nd St	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,214 (-14%)	4mo	$175,000	$144	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,705
• Equity at exit: $28,479

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-40,614
• Equity at exit: $16,514

Cash invested: $53,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77536

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,002
• Tax from tax record: −$490 /mo · $5,884/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,989

Max offer price $181,237

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-1	+0% $-55	+5% $-109	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-131	+0% $-55	+5% $21	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-7	base $-55	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,750
• Closing costs: $5,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 E 1st St Deer Park, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.61mi
813 Luella Ave Deer Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,781	$1.41	45d	1	0.70mi
1817 New Orleans St Deer Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,240	$1.25	26d	1	1.36mi
401 McDermott St Deer Park, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,585	$1.69	7d	13	1.44mi
407 McDermott St Deer Park, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,220	$1.19	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $191,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $191,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $191,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $191,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $191,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $191,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $191,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $191,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $191,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $191,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $191,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $191,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    price $191,000 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

15. 2026-04-14
    price $193,000 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

16. 2026-03-20
    status Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

17. 2026-03-15
    status Pending 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

18. 2026-02-22
    status Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

19. 2026-02-19
    status Pending 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

20. 2026-02-10
    status Pending 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

21. 2026-02-01
    listed $195,000 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    This charming single-story home features a classic cottage-style design with a welcoming front porch. The front yard is open providing plenty of room for landscaping potential, with mature trees adding shade and character to the lot. Home comes equipped with Generac Generator and solar panels, so no need to worry in the event of a storm. Come see this charming home and the endless possibilities it has to offer before it's gone.

22. 2004-11-17
    soldstatus
23. 1998-03-06
    soldstatus $59,105
24. 1998-03-01
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,884 · $490/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,884 · $490/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,699
• − Property taxes: −$5,884
• − Insurance: −$955
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$5,556
• Taxable loss: −$3,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$899
• After-tax cash flow: $236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,227
• Composite: 43.3/100
• National rank: #3039
• State rank: #170 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #5835

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,174
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,174
• Household income: $102,045
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.30%
• Current HPI: 253.1973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+247.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $191,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $193,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2004-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $59,105 Public Records
• 1998-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,884 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.