67 Arbor Green Ln · Shelbyville, KY 40065

$208,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1980 7,800 sqft lot $193/sqft · at area comps Est $203k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS ALL BRICK 3 BEDROOM, 1 BATH HOME - is Move-In Ready for a 1st time buyer or Investor! Approx $40k in Updates in 2021 include: All new plank flooring was installed throughout. New cabinets in the kitchen, New water heater, New Refrigerator, Oven replaced with a used but in excellent condition Stove/oven, Wall mounted air conditioner installed in kitchen/dining area, New Ceiling Fans throughout, Baseboard heaters replaced, Thermostats replaced, All new electrical wall plugs throughout, Interior all painted, A couple of new lights installed, New bathroom cabinets, toilet, & tub. Crawl space cleaned & a sump pump installed as well as a vapor barrier on the ground and up the walls. This is a Must See for the price!

Key facts

• All brick
• 7,800 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• ALL BRICK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($482/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#101 in KY, #4,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $162,187 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,450
• List price: $208,000
• Delta: 2.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Oakwood Ct	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,061 (-1%)	2mo	$204,000	$192	90
1632 Juniper Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,005 (-6%)	13mo	$205,000	$204	75
1808 Oakwood Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	975 (-9%)	3mo	$215,000	$221	74
67 Juniper Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	975 (-9%)	4mo	$235,900	$242	69
1614 Lakeside Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$200	67
3730 Mareli Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-2%)	10mo	$189,500	$180	65
1728 Cherry Ln	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (-7%)	1mo	$214,000	$213	64
1826 Blackwell Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	4mo	$275,000	$229	56
232 Fletcher Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+13%)	12mo	$275,000	$227	54
1608 Lakeside Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	960 (-11%)	10mo	$220,000	$229	48
1017 Horse Shoe Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+12%)	9mo	$234,000	$195	42
91 Smithfield Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-12%)	14mo	$175,000	$184	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-31,245
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,307
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40065

• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $208,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1814 Oakwood Dr Shelbyville, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,599	$1.52	44d	1	0.19mi
1856 Blackwell Rd Unit 1858 Blackwell Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	44d	1	0.25mi
121 Spencer Ct Shelbyville, KY	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,695	$1.49	17d	1	0.30mi
1569 Sanford Ln Shelbyville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,225	$1.20	2d	5	0.39mi
874 Marian Village Dr Shelbyville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1015	$1,475	$1.45	2d	4	0.92mi
103 Martin Luther King Jr St Shelbyville, KY	2.0	1.0	909	$1,295	$1.42	17d	1	1.13mi
113 Ada Ave Shelbyville, KY	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,025	$1.02	44d	1	1.21mi
149 Gray Hill Ct Shelbyville, KY	2.0	1.5	1050	$895	$0.85	24d	1	1.28mi
1225 Old Finchville Rd Shelbyville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,325	$1.36	2d	4	1.30mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $208,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $208,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $208,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $208,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $208,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $208,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $208,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,500 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,500 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $209,500 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    THIS ALL BRICK 3 BEDROOM, 1 BATH HOME - is Move-In Ready for a 1st time buyer or Investor! Approx $40k in Updates in 2021 include: All new plank flooring was installed throughout. New cabinets in the kitchen, New water heater, New Refrigerator, Oven replaced with a used but in excellent condition Stove/oven, Wall mounted air conditioner installed in kitchen/dining area, New Ceiling Fans throughout, Baseboard heaters replaced, Thermostats replaced, All new electrical wall plugs throughout, Interior all painted, A couple of new lights installed, New bathroom cabinets, toilet, & tub. Crawl space cleaned & a sump pump installed as well as a vapor barrier on the ground and up the walls. This is a Must See for the price!

17. 2006-01-12
    historical
18. 2005-09-12
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,789 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,024/yr (+$85/mo · 134.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$3,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$758
• After-tax cash flow: $1,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 2105320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,163
• Composite: 28.19/100
• National rank: #6809
• State rank: #77 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #4143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, KY
• County: Shelby County · 32,160 people
• City population: 32,160
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 32,160
• Household income: $77,869
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,947 people
• By 2030: 56,624 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 63,983 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 70,917 · +33.9%
• By 2075: 87,345 · +65.0%
• By 2100: 97,345 · +83.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.7) · D 31.8% · R 66.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -34.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.7 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.73%
• Current HPI: 177.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+162.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $209,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-01-12 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2005-09-12 Listed $79,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.