3021 S 11th St #7 · Port Aransas, TX 78373

$419,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,581 sqft · Condo · 222 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $266/sqft · 29% below area Est $591k · 29% under $847/mo HOA · 27% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

'Coconutties' at Meridian Condos delivers the full coastal package! 3 bdrms & 2.5 baths in a functional 3-story layout blend with high-end finish-out, all just blocks to the beach. First level features an isolated primary retreat with a custom ensuite bath featuring dual vanities & a glass-enclosed tiled rainhead shower. Head up to the main living level where an oversized open-concept great room is built to host in a big way. Quartz counters, stainless appliances & a decorative backsplash elevate the kitchen, with plenty of dining space for the whole crew. The oversized living area flows right out to a large deck — perfect for relaxing after beach days! A half bath plus an oversized laundry with pantry storage round out this level. The top floor offers two guest bdrms with a shared dual-entry bath, including one set up with bunks to host all the kiddos. Front guest bedroom even boasts a Juliet balcony with peeks of the Gulf! Beach-friendly LVP flooring runs throughout, paired with quartz surfaces & clean coastal finishes. Comes fully & cutely furnished & already a popular rental. Ground-level garage handles all your beach gear, a car or your golf cart with ease. Meridian amenities include a sparkling pool & hot tub just steps from your door, plus easy golf cart cruising to the beach & around town. Prime location just off 11th so you're literally blocks to the beach, dining & shops. Meridian offers strong rentability where you can pick your own management company for max income potential, plus HOA dues cover insurance & most utilities! Easy lock- & -leave coastal living awaits.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Quartz counters
• Custom ensuite bath

Tags

• ISOLATED PRIMARY RETREAT
• CUSTOM ENSUITE BATH
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• DECORATIVE BACKSPLASH
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $420k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (58.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (58.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 0.9% in Port Aransas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#525 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Aransas ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #68 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Olsen El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 227 students, 35% FRL); Brundrett Middle (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 115 students, 31% FRL); Port Aransas H S (math 74% / reading 74%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 204 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,472 (58.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.82%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $590,733
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: -28.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Pelican	1.44mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-3%)	0mo	$350,000	$227	58
1813 S 11th St #302	0.81mi	3/3.0	1,542 (-2%)	2mo	$419,000	$272	57
720 Access Road 1-a #405	0.37mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,365 (-14%)	1mo	$425,000	$311	52
720 Access Road 1-a #404	0.37mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,288 (-18%)	0mo	$469,500	$365	50
604 La Juana Ct	0.94mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+4%)	2mo	$495,000	$302	50
1210 Sea Secret St	1.18mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-7%)	1mo	$400,000	$273	50
180 Paradise Pointe Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,404 (-11%)	1mo	$675,000	$481	46
1018 S Station St	1.30mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-18%)	1mo	$565,000	$436	37
412 Mermaid Tail Ln	1.32mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,216 (-23%)	1mo	$875,000	$720	34
1931 Eskridge Rd	0.76mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,873 (+18%)	2mo	$649,000	$347	32
200 Sunset Ave	0.80mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,863 (+18%)	0mo	$1,095,000	$588	31
1424 S Eleventh St	1.01mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,905 (+20%)	2mo	$999,000	$524	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -49.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-174,357
• Equity at exit: $62,608

10-year hold

• IRR: -95.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.44×
• Total profit: $-286,420
• Equity at exit: $36,305

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $519,500 ($336/sqft)
• Median days on market: 182 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +11.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78373

• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,156 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,298/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$847
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $-1,682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,285

Max offer price $176,472

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,392	-5% $-1,537	+0% $-1,682	+5% $-1,827	+10% $-1,972
Rent	-10% $-1,932	-5% $-1,807	+0% $-1,682	+5% $-1,558	+10% $-1,433
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,471	-0.5pp $-1,575	base $-1,682	+0.5pp $-1,791	+1.0pp $-1,902

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2606 S 11th St #2 Port Aransas, TX	4.0	3.5	1480	$3,500	$2.36	154d	1	0.32mi
2821 Eleventh St #104 Port Aransas, TX	3.0	3.0	1559	$3,300	$2.12	48d	1	0.45mi
2212 State Highway 361 #220 Port Aransas, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,500	$1.97	0d	1	0.62mi
236 Nautilus Port Aransas, TX	3.0	3.5	1380	$2,500	$1.81	2d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail $847/mo · $10,164/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $419,900 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $419,900 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $419,900 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $419,900 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $419,900 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $419,900 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $419,900 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $419,900 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $419,900 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $419,900 Active 212 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $419,900 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $419,900 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $419,900 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $419,900 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $419,900 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $419,900 Active 206 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $419,900 Active 205 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $419,900 Active 204 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $419,900 Active 203 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $419,900 Active 202 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $419,900 Active 201 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $419,900 Active 200 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $419,900 Active 199 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $419,900 Active 198 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $419,900 Active 197 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $419,900 Active 196 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $419,900 Active 195 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $419,900 Active 194 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $419,900 Active 193 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $419,900 Active 192 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $419,900 Active 191 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 190 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $419,900 Active 189 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $419,900 Active 188 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $419,900 Active 187 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 186 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 185 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 184 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $419,900 Active 183 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $419,900 Active 182 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $419,900 Active 181 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $419,900 Active 180 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $419,900 Active 179 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $419,900 Active 178 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $419,900 Active 177 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $419,900 Active 176 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $419,900 Active 175 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $419,900 Active 174 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $419,900 Active 173 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $419,900 Active 171 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$6,298
• − Insurance: −$7,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,030
• − Management: −$3,030
• − HOA: −$10,164
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$27,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,905–$23,715 screening

This Meridian Condo is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates are painting the exterior siding and cleaning the gutters.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Olsen El C- TX #742/4,322 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Brundrett Middle B+ TX #134/1,662 Nat'l #1,545/14,009 High Port Aransas H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Aransas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835370
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,528
• Composite: 50.82/100
• National rank: #1803
• State rank: #68 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Port Aransas

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #10286

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living D- Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Aransas, TX
• County: Nueces · 418,037 people
• City population: 296,836
• Metro: Corpus Christi, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,314
• Household income: $90,000
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

---

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.54%
• Current HPI: 268.699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+133.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $419,900 CBMLS
• 2012-06-22 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2012-02-24 Listed $209,900 CBMLS
• 2009-05-11 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2006-11-16 Listed $179,900 CBMLS