126 Fred Catlin Rd · Owego, NY 13827

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1991 Fair condition 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Home with many updates. Sits on a spacious 2-acre lot with amazing views. Home features master bedroom with new walk-in shower in the master bathroom. Lovely kitchen and dining area open to the living room. Two additional bedrooms and another full bathroom. Laundry room is conveniently located off the kitchen and the back entrance. Property has a one car garage and storage shed. Large lawn. 2023 new propane furnace, 2012 new windows, 2011 new laminate flooring. This property is currently a rental. Current rent is $630/mo. and tenant stays. DO NOT DRIVE UP THE DRIVEWAY AND ENTER THE PROPERTY WITHOUT YOUR REALTOR. This 2-acre lot is being surveyed off from parcel # 116.00-1-7.10. Taxes and as

Key facts

• One car garage
• Amazing views
• Lovely kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS 2-ACRE LOT
• AMAZING VIEWS
• NEW WALK-IN SHOWER
• LOVELY KITCHEN
• ONE CAR GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Slab foundation; 980 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Sloped lot with views

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.3% in Owego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#214 in NY, #3,289 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Tioga Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tioga Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 348 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.38%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $64,860
• Equity at exit: $99,720

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $180,545
• Equity at exit: $198,862

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13827

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $208	+0% $163	+5% $118	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $110	+0% $163	+5% $216	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $229	-0.5pp $196	base $163	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $130,000 Active 734-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $1,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. Painting the exterior siding and cleaning the kitchen and bathrooms would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — The kitchen cabinets appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage.
• Minor bathroom fixtures — The bathroom fixtures appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage.
• Moderate exterior siding — The exterior siding shows some discoloration and wear, indicating a need for maintenance or repainting.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Both Clean and organize the kitchen and bathrooms — A clean and organized kitchen and bathrooms can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · The kitchen cabinets appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · The bathroom fixtures appear to be in good condition, with no visible damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding shows some discoloration and wear, indicating a need for maintenance or repainting.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both Clean and organize the kitchen and bathrooms — A clean and organized kitchen and bathrooms can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628710
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,082
• Composite: 46.16/100
• National rank: #2500
• State rank: #322 of 590 in NY

Livability — Owego

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #3289

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,713

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,155 people
• By 2030: 42,801 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 37,960 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 33,071 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 24,144 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 16,545 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.9) · D 38.6% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -22.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.9 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Current HPI: 259.9605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $130,000 GBAOR