569 Buck Hill Rd · Arlington, VT 05250

$250,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,952 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 1850 0.60 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS THOROUGHLY INSPIRING HISTORIC HOME IS FILLED WITH OLD WORLD CHARM IN ATTACHED TURRET IN EVERY NOOK CORNER. UPDATED SYSTEMS CAN EFFORTLESSLY LINK YOU TO YESTERDAY`S ELEGANCE. CHERRY MAPLE FLOORS GRACE EACH OF THE LG. RMS. INTEGRITY THROUGHOUT!!!

Key facts

• Full basement
• Multiple porches
• Arched doorway

Tags

• ARCHED DOORWAY
• STRIKING TURRET
• MASSIVE WALK UP ATTIC
• FULL BASEMENT
• SLATE ROOF
• MULTIPLE PORCHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is bank-owned / REO

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet available on site; Telephone service at site
• Home design: Colonial / Farmhouse style; White exterior
• Construction: Built in 1850; Wood frame construction with vinyl siding; Slate roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved driveway; Paved road frontage (172 ft)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (25 x 12); Bedroom on the second floor (17 x 14); Bedroom on the second floor (13 x 13); Bedroom on the second floor (13 x 11)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Softwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first floor, one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: Nine total rooms; Concrete basement floor; Full, unfinished basement with interior stair access and storage space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Domestic water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#104 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety D.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,040 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,792
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Kansas Rd	0.66mi	4/1.5 (-1)	3,060 (+4%)	11mo	$140,000	$46	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $116,734
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $359,112
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05250

• Home prices YoY: 11.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $205,811

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-133	-5% $-219	+0% $-305	+5% $-392	+10% $-478
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-376	+0% $-305	+5% $-234	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-242	base $-305	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $250,000 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #21059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.92%
• Current HPI: 315.5985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $250,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $275,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $300,000 PrimeMLS
• 2003-11-21 Sold (MLS) $259,000 PrimeMLS
• 2003-09-02 Listed $259,000 PrimeMLS