Lot 291 Swan Fld · Ranson, WV 25438

$297,390

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,283 sqft · Townhouse · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $269k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this three-story home features a recreation room. The second level is host to an open concept floorplan that seamlessly connects a Great Room, dining area and modern kitchen. On the top floor, there are two bedrooms, including the luxurious owner's suite, which offers residents a restful bedroom, spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A full bathroom is easily accessible from the secondary bedroom.

Key facts

• Modern kitchen
• Garage
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family home (Quincy plan)
• Exterior features: Located on Lot 291 in Swan Fld, Ranson WV

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Quincy plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $204,091 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.38%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,430
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Short Br Lot 236 QUINCY	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,315 (+2%)	4mo	$275,000	$209	90
220 Swan Field Ave Lot 233 QUINCY	0.02mi	2/3.0	1,315 (+2%)	5mo	$289,290	$220	88
279 Sandy Bottom Cir Lot 84 QUINCY	0.14mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,315 (+2%)	9mo	$261,990	$199	73
271 Sandy Bottom Cir Lot 82 QUINCY	0.14mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,315 (+2%)	11mo	$279,990	$213	71
31 Short Br Lot 169 QUINCY	0.25mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,315 (+2%)	6mo	$265,000	$202	71
23 Short Br Lot 171 QUINCY	0.25mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,315 (+2%)	6mo	$275,690	$210	70
55 Rolling Branch Dr Lot 144 QUINCY	0.22mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,315 (+2%)	8mo	$276,640	$210	70
311 Sandy Bottom Cir Lot 127 QUINCY	0.14mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,328 (+4%)	11mo	$271,990	$205	70
328 Water Course Dr Lot 159 QUINCY	0.26mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,315 (+2%)	9mo	$272,040	$207	68
372 Anthem St #448	0.71mi	2/2.5	1,387 (+8%)	1mo	$288,990	$208	53
364 Anthem St	0.71mi	2/2.5	1,387 (+8%)	1mo	$292,490	$211	52
352 Anthem St #443	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,387 (+8%)	1mo	$292,990	$211	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $133,790
• Equity at exit: $267,912

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $416,233
• Equity at exit: $577,763

Cash invested: $83,269 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25438

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,461/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $233,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-237	-5% $-340	+0% $-443	+5% $-546	+10% $-648
Rent	-10% $-604	-5% $-523	+0% $-443	+5% $-362	+10% $-282
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-367	base $-443	+0.5pp $-520	+1.0pp $-598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,348
• Closing costs: $8,922
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
271 Swan Field Ave Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,100	$1.18	4d	1	0.08mi
495 National St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,850	$1.39	25d	1	0.77mi
163 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1386	$2,500	$1.80	5d	1	0.93mi
300 Presidents Pointe Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	19d	1	0.93mi
99 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$2,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.97mi
34 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,850	$1.32	2d	1	0.99mi
36 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,800	$1.29	25d	1	1.03mi
1130 Stallion St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	5d	1	1.06mi
214 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$1,925	$1.39	19d	1	1.08mi
452 18th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,995	$1.16	5d	1	1.27mi
405 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,150	$1.25	5d	1	1.28mi
415 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,990	$1.31	25d	1	1.28mi
1308 Cedar Valley Rd Unit 1308 Ranson, WV	2.0	4.0	1333	$1,899	$1.42	25d	1	1.28mi
603 N Fairfax Blvd Ranson, WV	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,850	$1.78	13d	1	1.29mi
1344 Red Clover Ln Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1723	$2,099	$1.22	13d	1	1.32mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,658
• − Property taxes: −$4,461
• − Insurance: −$1,487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$8,651
• Taxable loss: −$10,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,564
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This three-story townhouse is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranson, WV
• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 7,330
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 7,330
• Household income: $81,875
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.87%
• Current HPI: 352.707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0