401 N Grace St · Stratford, TX 79084

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2005 0.39 ac lot $82/sqft · at area comps Est $117k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice home with 3 bedroom, two full baths and two living areas, with central heat and air. This property sits on 3 lots with plenty of room for a shop, it also has a one car carport.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#539 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Stratford ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #307 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Sherman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,544
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -1.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-10,741
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $846
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79084

• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $156	+0% $124	+5% $91	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $78	+0% $124	+5% $169	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $153	base $124	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $115,000 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Nice home with 3 bedroom, two full baths and two living areas, with central heat and air. This property sits on 3 lots with plenty of room for a shop, it also has a one car carport.

16. 2026-03-13
    price $123,900 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Nice home with 3 bedroom, two full baths and two living areas, with central heat and air. This property sits on 3 lots with plenty of room for a shop, it also has a one car carport.

17. 2026-01-20
    listed $133,500 Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Nice home with 3 bedroom, two full baths and two living areas, with central heat and air. This property sits on 3 lots with plenty of room for a shop, it also has a one car carport.

18. 2001-05-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$90
• After-tax cash flow: $1,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stratford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841670
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 36.8/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #307 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stratford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #10513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stratford, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,425

Population outlook (Sherman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,200 people
• By 2030: 3,248 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 3,303 · +3.2%
• By 2050: 3,289 · +2.8%
• By 2075: 3,228 · +0.9%
• By 2100: 2,916 · -8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 27% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: German 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+88.2) · D 5.5% · R 93.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -74.2pp · 2024: -88.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+88.2 2020: R+80.2 2016: R+76.2 2012: R+75.8 2008: R+74.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.74%
• Current HPI: 105.592
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $115,000 AARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $123,900 AARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $133,500 AARMLS
• 2001-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.