526 W Lake Ave · Herkimer, NY 13350

$149,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1900 6,098 sqft lot $142/sqft · 8% below area Est $162k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Packed with rustic charm and original slab floors throughout, this fixer-upper is full of potential for the right buyer. Nestled on a quiet dead-end road, the setting offers peace, privacy, and country character. While the home is not currently move-in ready, it presents a fantastic opportunity for those with vision—whether you're looking to flip, rent, or create a personalized owner-occupied space. With some TLC, this property could truly shine. Cash only sale, sold as-is. A 10% earnest money deposit (EMD) is required. If you're ready to roll up your sleeves and bring this hidden gem back to life, this is the project for you!

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• Newer windows
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• CUSTOM DESIGNED KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWLY ADDED HALF BATH
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEWER WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Community/Coop sewer; Power/utilities connected
• Home design: 2 stories; Existing construction/Resale
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Foam insulation; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes living spaces such as family room, entry foyer; bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Pantry; Has full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.5% in Herkimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $150k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,247
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: -6.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
519 Steuben Rd	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,115 (+6%)	5mo	$159,500	$143	78
115 Hillside Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,036 (-2%)	16mo	$145,000	$140	67
1097 E German St. Ext	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	964 (-8%)	2mo	$190,000	$197	59
339 Steuben St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,105 (+5%)	23mo	$153,700	$139	56
209 Pullman St	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+4%)	14mo	$152,000	$139	52
602 Pine Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,014 (-4%)	10mo	$154,900	$153	52
181 Folts Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0	983 (-7%)	15mo	$174,000	$177	45
310 Steuben St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,196 (+14%)	9mo	$148,000	$124	45
609 Malcolm St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,137 (+8%)	7mo	$110,000	$97	44
115 Willis Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (+9%)	9mo	$175,000	$152	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $98,176
• Equity at exit: $134,681

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.59×
• Total profit: $276,008
• Equity at exit: $290,446

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,265/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $305	+0% $263	+5% $220	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $198	+0% $263	+5% $328	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $301	base $263	+0.5pp $224	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	45d	1	0.06mi
124 W Smith St Herkimer, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	45d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $149,500 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,500 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $149,500 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $152,500 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,500 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,500 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,500 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $157,500 1346-char remark
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active 1346-char remark
16. 2026-05-13
    historical Active Under Contract 1346-char remark
17. 2026-03-21
    status Pending 1346-char remark
18. 2026-03-16
    price $159,500 1346-char remark
19. 2026-03-06
    listed $169,900 Active 1346-char remark
20. 2026-01-12
    soldstatus $39,000 Closed 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Packed with rustic charm and original slab floors throughout, this fixer-upper is full of potential for the right buyer. Nestled on a quiet dead-end road, the setting offers peace, privacy, and country character. While the home is not currently move-in ready, it presents a fantastic opportunity for those with vision—whether you're looking to flip, rent, or create a personalized owner-occupied space. With some TLC, this property could truly shine. Cash only sale, sold as-is. A 10% earnest money deposit (EMD) is required. If you're ready to roll up your sleeves and bring this hidden gem back to life, this is the project for you!

21. 2025-11-20
    status Pending 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Packed with rustic charm and original slab floors throughout, this fixer-upper is full of potential for the right buyer. Nestled on a quiet dead-end road, the setting offers peace, privacy, and country character. While the home is not currently move-in ready, it presents a fantastic opportunity for those with vision—whether you're looking to flip, rent, or create a personalized owner-occupied space. With some TLC, this property could truly shine. Cash only sale, sold as-is. A 10% earnest money deposit (EMD) is required. If you're ready to roll up your sleeves and bring this hidden gem back to life, this is the project for you!

22. 2025-11-19
    listed $39,999 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Packed with rustic charm and original slab floors throughout, this fixer-upper is full of potential for the right buyer. Nestled on a quiet dead-end road, the setting offers peace, privacy, and country character. While the home is not currently move-in ready, it presents a fantastic opportunity for those with vision—whether you're looking to flip, rent, or create a personalized owner-occupied space. With some TLC, this property could truly shine. Cash only sale, sold as-is. A 10% earnest money deposit (EMD) is required. If you're ready to roll up your sleeves and bring this hidden gem back to life, this is the project for you!

23. 2025-09-30
    historical
24. 2025-09-18
    price $46,999
25. 2025-08-31
    historical
26. 2025-08-28
    price $49,999
27. 2025-08-26
    price $49,999
28. 2025-07-14
    listed $54,999 Active
29. 2025-07-14
    listed $54,999 Active
30. 2025-04-09
    historical
31. 2025-04-08
    listed $59,999 Active
32. 2025-03-28
    listed $59,999 Active
33. 2012-01-03
    soldstatus $48,360

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,265 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,396 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$131/yr (+$11/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$2,265
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $822
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$197
• After-tax cash flow: $2,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+209.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $149,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $152,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $157,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $159,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-12 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Global MLS
• 2025-11-20 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $39,999 Global MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $46,999 Global MLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $49,999 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $49,999 Global MLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $54,999 UNYREIS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $54,999 Global MLS
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $59,999 UNYREIS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $59,999 Global MLS
• 2012-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $48,360 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,265 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.