731 Bay Ave · Toms River, NJ 08753

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1950 0.36 ac lot $273/sqft · 15% below area Est $531k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this classic 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom ranch-style home, offering endless possibilities for those with a vision. This home features a spacious layout with generous living areas, making it an ideal project for anyone looking to put their personal touch on a property with great bones. The main level includes a cozy living room, a functional kitchen, and four well-sized bedrooms, perfect for families or those in need of extra space. The full basement adds additional square footage and can easily be transformed into a rec room, home gym, or extra storage, depending on your needs. The real highlight is the backyard, where you'll find a large inground pool--perfect for entertaining or relaxing on hot summer days. With some TLC, this outdoor space could become your own private oasis. Additional features include a 2-car garage, providing ample storage and parking space. While the house does need some updating and cosmetic work, the potential is undeniable. Whether you're a seasoned renovator or a first-time buyer ready to make this home your own, this property is a fantastic opportunity to create your dream home. Don't miss out on the chance to own this diamond in the rough! Contact us today for a showing.

Key facts

• Backyard
• Full basement
• Inground pool

Tags

• INGROUND POOL
• FULL BASEMENT
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Dover Elementary School (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #862 of 1,303 statewide, top 67%, 608 students, 35% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School East (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 1,294 students, 24% FRL); Toms River High School East (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #243 of 399 statewide, top 63%, 1,520 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $450k implies a 3114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,056 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $531,479
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -15.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Bow Rd	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,724 (+4%)	11mo	$417,000	$242	72
349 Kildare Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,645 (-0%)	1mo	$561,000	$341	68
202 Lester Rd	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,745 (+6%)	13mo	$560,000	$321	67
507 Sloop Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-13%)	7mo	$492,000	$342	59
862 Bay Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,568 (-5%)	2mo	$450,000	$287	58
77 Oak Glen Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,723 (+4%)	9mo	$675,000	$392	56
22 Turnberry Cir #121	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,684 (+2%)	7mo	$480,000	$285	54
668 Clifton Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,594 (-3%)	11mo	$550,000	$345	49
855 Derry Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,865 (+13%)	6mo	$575,000	$308	45
720 Brookside Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,868 (+13%)	12mo	$465,000	$249	44
1104 Biondo St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+8%)	11mo	$525,000	$295	43
621 Buenaventura Ct	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,833 (+11%)	1mo	$685,600	$374	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-98,456
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-132,329
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,426/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,797

Max offer price $393,295

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-194	+0% $-321	+5% $-448	+10% $-576
Rent	-10% $-589	-5% $-455	+0% $-321	+5% $-187	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-207	base $-321	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
830 Brookside Dr Toms River, NJ	4.0	3.5	1985	$3,700	$1.86	0d	1	0.27mi
100 Kaplan Ct Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$3,007	$2.68	18d	9	0.39mi
944 Yellowbank Rd Toms River, NJ	4.0	2.5	1715	$3,600	$2.10	45d	1	0.95mi
316 Burntwood Trl Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.5	1710	$2,950	$1.73	45d	1	1.22mi
416 Hooper Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1330	$3,000	$2.26	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $450,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-03-17
    listed $450,000 Active 1224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1224 chars)

    Welcome to this classic 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom ranch-style home, offering endless possibilities for those with a vision. This home features a spacious layout with generous living areas, making it an ideal project for anyone looking to put their personal touch on a property with great bones. The main level includes a cozy living room, a functional kitchen, and four well-sized bedrooms, perfect for families or those in need of extra space. The full basement adds additional square footage and can easily be transformed into a rec room, home gym, or extra storage, depending on your needs. The real highlight is the backyard, where you'll find a large inground pool--perfect for entertaining or relaxing on hot summer days. With some TLC, this outdoor space could become your own private oasis. Additional features include a 2-car garage, providing ample storage and parking space. While the house does need some updating and cosmetic work, the potential is undeniable. Whether you're a seasoned renovator or a first-time buyer ready to make this home your own, this property is a fantastic opportunity to create your dream home. Don't miss out on the chance to own this diamond in the rough! Contact us today for a showing.

15. 2026-02-19
    price $450,000
16. 2026-01-15
    price $460,000
17. 2025-12-16
    listed $475,000 Active
18. 1969-12-19
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,426 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,316 · $693/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,889/yr (+$241/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$5,426
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,255
• − Management: −$3,255
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$11,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,831
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+3114.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $450,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $450,000 MOMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $460,000 MOMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $475,000 MOMLS
• 1969-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,426 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.