6359 Vassar Dr · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1986 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Investment Opportunity in Highridge Estates Discover the potential of this cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured home nestled on a spacious 0.34-acre corner lot in the quiet Highridge Estates community of Keystone Heights. Whether you are looking for a manageable primary residence or a strategic addition to your rental portfolio, this property offers functional simplicity in a prime location! . Construction: Metal siding with a metal roof and crawlspace foundation. Flooring: Vinyl throughout. Layout: Features a Kitchen/Family Room combo. Climate Control: Equipped with Central Air and Central Heat. Utilities: Electricity is connected; the property uses a private well and a sep

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on approximately 0.34 acre (107 x 140); Wooded lot; Located on a corner within High Ridge Estates; directions available
• Financial info: No specific financial details provided
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on a crawlspace
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (total)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Crawlspace foundation access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.48%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $36,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 NE Holly Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	574 (+2%)	19mo	$38,000	$66	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $25,200
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $68,777
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $554

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $79,000
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $790,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$11/yr (+$1/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $6,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $5,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-90.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $790,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $562 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.