4281 SW 157th Ct · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2021 Poor condition 10,019 sqft lot $170/sqft · 17% below area Est $205k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. What a Great Opportunity! Brand new home! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths. .. Solid Concrete Block construction with Waterproof Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring. You will love the Open Split Floorplan with cathedral ceilings, energy efficient windows, indoor laundry, and a complete Stainless Steel Appliance Package. This home comes with a 10 year Structural Warranty. Don't miss out! 100% Financing Available! Photos are of another finished model and do not necessarily reflect final color selections.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Split floorplan
• Modern cabinetry

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.23-acre lot; Living area about 1,000 square feet; Unfurnished; Zoned R1

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Northwest facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on slab
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.4% in Rainbow Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1158 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.25%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,117
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -17.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4322 SW 157th Ter	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,058 (+6%)	6mo	$203,000	$192	81
15310 SW 40th Place Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,066 (+7%)	2mo	$197,000	$185	66
2582 SW 157 Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,127 (+13%)	21mo	$229,900	$204	50
15369 SW 38th Pl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,127 (+13%)	10mo	$219,000	$194	47
15351 SW 38th Pl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,127 (+13%)	10mo	$211,900	$188	47
3645 SW 151st Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,099 (+10%)	10mo	$190,000	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,418
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $42,932
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1158
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,509/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $534	+0% $486	+5% $438	+10% $389
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $403	+0% $486	+5% $569	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $571	-0.5pp $529	base $486	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	14d	1	0.32mi
4486 SW 159th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1149	$2,500	$2.18	22d	1	0.32mi
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	14d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $175,000 Active 1132-char remark
2. 2021-10-22
   soldstatus $162,000 Closed 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Under Construction. What a Great Opportunity! Brand new home! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths. .. Solid Concrete Block construction with Waterproof Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring. You will love the Open Split Floorplan with cathedral ceilings, energy efficient windows, indoor laundry, and a complete Stainless Steel Appliance Package. This home comes with a 10 year Structural Warranty. Don't miss out! 100% Financing Available! Photos are of another finished model and do not necessarily reflect final color selections.

3. 2021-07-21
   status Pending 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Under Construction. What a Great Opportunity! Brand new home! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths. .. Solid Concrete Block construction with Waterproof Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring. You will love the Open Split Floorplan with cathedral ceilings, energy efficient windows, indoor laundry, and a complete Stainless Steel Appliance Package. This home comes with a 10 year Structural Warranty. Don't miss out! 100% Financing Available! Photos are of another finished model and do not necessarily reflect final color selections.

4. 2021-07-15
   listed $144,900 Active 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Under Construction. What a Great Opportunity! Brand new home! 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths. .. Solid Concrete Block construction with Waterproof Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring. You will love the Open Split Floorplan with cathedral ceilings, energy efficient windows, indoor laundry, and a complete Stainless Steel Appliance Package. This home comes with a 10 year Structural Warranty. Don't miss out! 100% Financing Available! Photos are of another finished model and do not necessarily reflect final color selections.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,509 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,509 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,509
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$796
• After-tax cash flow: $5,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investments in the exterior, interior, and systems are necessary to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant damage
• Major roof — Shingles appear worn
• Major flooring — Worn carpet
• Major interior walls — Paint peeling
• Major bathrooms — Visible damage and wear
• Major kitchen — Worn cabinetry and countertops
• Major HVAC — No visible systems in good condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New siding and roof — Enhances curb appeal and durability
• Resale New flooring and cabinetry — Improves interior aesthetics and functionality
• Resale New paint — Freshens the home's appearance
• Both New HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Shingles appear worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Paint peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Visible damage and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · Worn cabinetry and countertops	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC · No visible systems in good condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New siding and roof — Enhances curb appeal and durability ↑
• Resale New flooring and cabinetry — Improves interior aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Resale New paint — Freshens the home's appearance ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+17.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-15 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+141.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,509 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.