20176 Canyon Vw · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Manufactured · 153 Days on market

Built 2000 3,031 sqft lot Est $284k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this Beautiful single story Canyon View Property. Close proximity to freeways, schools, and restaurants. Open floor plan with 2 Full bedrooms and bathroom plus a den. Kitchen has been upgraded with newer countertops. This unique property has great views! Schedule your appointment today. Cash Only Purchase

Key facts

• Single story home
• Covered patio
• Flexible third room

Tags

• SINGLE STORY HOME
• FLEXIBLE THIRD ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• GUARD GATED COMMUNITY
• TWO POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Canyon View Estates; Curbs in the community
• HOA & community: Land lease community — monthly land lease payment of $1,626

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 2 vehicles (2 garage spaces, 2 parking spaces total)
• Utilities: Sewer service paid; Public/district water
• Home design: Planned development community; Single-story; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Manufactured home; Association pool; Sprinkler system; Paved areas; Yard; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Entry on main level; Main level has 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,791/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 784% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $285k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.30%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,824
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20126 Northcliff	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$160	94
19983 Crestview Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	7mo	$360,000	$205	80
27829 Sunrise Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,752 (0%)	3mo	$283,000	$162	78
20039 Emerald Creek Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+5%)	16mo	$300,000	$163	61
19954 Emerald Crk	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+5%)	19mo	$335,000	$182	56
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #231	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-10%)	3mo	$240,000	$153	51
20401 Soledad Cyn #613	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+4%)	24mo	$254,500	$140	44
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #821	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-14%)	23mo	$235,800	$156	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $63,334
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $179,606
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,006
• Net cashflow: $1,816

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27932 Calypso Ln Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1783	$7,495	$4.20	19d	1	0.41mi
27932 Calypso Ln Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1789	$7,495	$4.19	1d	1	0.41mi
28131 Florence Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$4,300	$2.84	1d	1	0.63mi
28040 Ermine Pl Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1467	$4,250	$2.90	1d	1	0.66mi
28128 Wildwind Rd Canyon Country, CA	3.0	3.0	1900	$3,875	$2.04	1d	1	0.95mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$3,700	$3.52	24d	2	1.03mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,700	$2.70	1d	1	1.04mi
26844 Albion Way Unit 1 Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1817	$3,995	$2.20	12d	1	1.13mi
28371 Mirabelle Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,400	$1.99	6d	1	1.16mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	7d	1	1.16mi
22056 Windham Way Santa Clarita, CA	4.0	3.0	2132	$4,350	$2.04	1d	1	1.18mi
28366 Casselman Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.5	1710	$3,650	$2.13	1d	1	1.20mi
19341 Opal Ln Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$3,850	$2.08	18d	1	1.25mi
28519 Moyer Ln Santa Clarita, CA	4.0	3.0	2360	$4,950	$2.10	1d	1	1.26mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	7d	1	1.39mi
18735 Bookham Dr Canyon Country, CA	4.0	2.0	1628	$4,900	$3.01	16d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $285,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-01-16
    listed $295,000 Active
17. 2017-05-08
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed Sale 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Check out this Beautiful single story Canyon View Property. Close proximity to freeways, schools, and restaurants. Open floor plan with 2 Full bedrooms and bathroom plus a den. Kitchen has been upgraded with newer countertops. This unique property has great views! Schedule your appointment today. Cash Only Purchase

18. 2017-04-09
    status Pending Sale 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Check out this Beautiful single story Canyon View Property. Close proximity to freeways, schools, and restaurants. Open floor plan with 2 Full bedrooms and bathroom plus a den. Kitchen has been upgraded with newer countertops. This unique property has great views! Schedule your appointment today. Cash Only Purchase

19. 2017-04-08
    listed $120,000 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Check out this Beautiful single story Canyon View Property. Close proximity to freeways, schools, and restaurants. Open floor plan with 2 Full bedrooms and bathroom plus a den. Kitchen has been upgraded with newer countertops. This unique property has great views! Schedule your appointment today. Cash Only Purchase

20. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus $74,900 Closed 1222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1222 chars)

    Located in the guard gated community of Canyon View Estates this 2+2 with an office/den and 1610 square feet of living space has been meticulously maintained. With it's vaulted ceilings and architectural enhancements made to the floor plan this home shows light and bright and has a wide open feel. The upgraded & reconfigured kitchen add to the beauty of the home. Newer cabinets and hardware along with granite counters, two ovens and an arched doorway at the entry add to the flow of the home. Relax in the spacious living room with the rock accented fireplace or in the Jacuzzi tub in the master bathroom. Whether you head out to your front porch or venture into your backyard, the surroundings offer relaxing views and atmosphere. Canyon View amenities include two swimming pool areas, two children's playgrounds, sport/tennis courts, a recreation room with kitchen, RV parking (subject to availability) and Discovery Park just outside the gates of Canyon View Estates. Canyon View Estates is a leased land community in which you purchase the home and lease the land. The land lease for this property will be approx. $1158/ month. Buyer to verify all terms and conditions of the lease with Canyon View Estates.

21. 2013-06-13
    status Backup Offers Accepted 1222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1222 chars)

    Located in the guard gated community of Canyon View Estates this 2+2 with an office/den and 1610 square feet of living space has been meticulously maintained. With it's vaulted ceilings and architectural enhancements made to the floor plan this home shows light and bright and has a wide open feel. The upgraded & reconfigured kitchen add to the beauty of the home. Newer cabinets and hardware along with granite counters, two ovens and an arched doorway at the entry add to the flow of the home. Relax in the spacious living room with the rock accented fireplace or in the Jacuzzi tub in the master bathroom. Whether you head out to your front porch or venture into your backyard, the surroundings offer relaxing views and atmosphere. Canyon View amenities include two swimming pool areas, two children's playgrounds, sport/tennis courts, a recreation room with kitchen, RV parking (subject to availability) and Discovery Park just outside the gates of Canyon View Estates. Canyon View Estates is a leased land community in which you purchase the home and lease the land. The land lease for this property will be approx. $1158/ month. Buyer to verify all terms and conditions of the lease with Canyon View Estates.

22. 2013-05-04
    listed $84,000 Active 1222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1222 chars)

    Located in the guard gated community of Canyon View Estates this 2+2 with an office/den and 1610 square feet of living space has been meticulously maintained. With it's vaulted ceilings and architectural enhancements made to the floor plan this home shows light and bright and has a wide open feel. The upgraded & reconfigured kitchen add to the beauty of the home. Newer cabinets and hardware along with granite counters, two ovens and an arched doorway at the entry add to the flow of the home. Relax in the spacious living room with the rock accented fireplace or in the Jacuzzi tub in the master bathroom. Whether you head out to your front porch or venture into your backyard, the surroundings offer relaxing views and atmosphere. Canyon View amenities include two swimming pool areas, two children's playgrounds, sport/tennis courts, a recreation room with kitchen, RV parking (subject to availability) and Discovery Park just outside the gates of Canyon View Estates. Canyon View Estates is a leased land community in which you purchase the home and lease the land. The land lease for this property will be approx. $1158/ month. Buyer to verify all terms and conditions of the lease with Canyon View Estates.

23. 2012-05-29
    soldstatus $65,200 Closed
24. 2012-04-28
    status Pending
25. 2012-04-25
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,600
• − Management: −$4,600
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $18,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,402
• After-tax cash flow: $17,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+391.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2017-05-08 Sold (MLS) $120,000 CRMLS
• 2017-04-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-04-08 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2013-06-28 Sold (MLS) $74,900 CRMLS
• 2013-06-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2013-05-04 Listed $84,000 CRMLS
• 2012-05-29 Sold (MLS) $65,200 CRMLS
• 2012-04-28 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-04-25 Listed $60,000 CRMLS