15 Mustang Dr · Morgan's Point Resort, TX 76513

$54,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured public records · 428 Days on market

Built 1970 6,372 sqft lot $62/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEAR BELTON LAKE! Located in Morgans Point, Texas this home is a fixer upper, but has a lot of potential. This property is located down the road from John Ansay Park and Belton Lake. It is the perfect investment opportunity for anyone looking to fix up a property near the lake. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• 6,372 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 428 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 2.5% in Morgan's Point Resort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 745 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $55k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.48%
• DSCR: 3.29
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,339
• List price: $54,999
• Delta: -77.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $31,021
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $72,688
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76513

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 745
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $319/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $428

Max offer price $54,999

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $692	-5% $676	+0% $661	+5% $645	+10% $630
Rent	-10% $561	-5% $611	+0% $661	+5% $711	+10% $761
Rate	-1.0pp $688	-0.5pp $675	base $661	+0.5pp $646	+1.0pp $632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,999 Active 428 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,999 Active 427 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,999 Active 426 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,999 Active 425 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,999 Active 423 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,999 Active 422 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,999 Active 419 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,999 Active 418 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,999 Active 417 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,999 Active 414 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,999 Active 413 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,999 Active 412 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,999 Active 411 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,999 Active 410 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,999 Active 409 DOM
16. 2025-04-16
    listed $54,999 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    NEAR BELTON LAKE! Located in Morgans Point, Texas this home is a fixer upper, but has a lot of potential. This property is located down the road from John Ansay Park and Belton Lake. It is the perfect investment opportunity for anyone looking to fix up a property near the lake. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

17. 2024-03-28
    soldstatus $13,000
18. 1995-03-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 215.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$319
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $7,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,792
• After-tax cash flow: $6,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Morgan's Point Resort

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morgan's Point Resort, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,928
• Household income: $80,661
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 183.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+323.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-16 Listed $54,999 HARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $319 · -27.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.