2816 Brushy Lake Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76179

$350,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,284 sqft · Other · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 7,187 sqft lot $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and privacy. Two bedrooms are at the front of the home, including the owner's suite which features a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the hall is the open concept living area which includes a covered patio in the back. Upstairs is a game room loft, as well as two bedrooms that share a jack-and-jill style bathroom in between.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Covered patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• FLEX SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder listing / new construction; Municipal Utility District: No
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee (includes full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with two covered spaces; Garage faces front; 2-car single door garage
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Wireless security features
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; New construction (incomplete, 2026); Deeded restrictions
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Large backyard with grass; Sprinkler system; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Natural stone/granite countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet and linen closet; Three additional bedrooms (two on main level, one upstairs) with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with dual sinks and linen storage
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; High speed internet available; Cable TV available; Smart home system; Walk-in closets; Kitchen breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Natural stone/granite countertops; Water line to refrigerator; Linen closet; Dual sinks
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $351k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-659/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD (urban): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #361 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1073 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($346k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,441 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,403
• Equity at exit: $52,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-76,643
• Equity at exit: $30,348

Cash invested: $98,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76179

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1073
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,634 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,841
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,166/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,704

Max offer price $341,302

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $44	+0% $-55	+5% $-154	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-159	+0% $-55	+5% $49	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $34	base $-55	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,750
• Closing costs: $10,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10212 Regal Bend Ln Saginaw, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,395	$1.28	18d	1	0.10mi
10021 Elkhorn Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,595	$1.16	3d	1	0.45mi
2600 Starwater Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.5	3111	$3,045	$0.98	3d	1	0.46mi
9925 Little Tree Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$2,600	$1.25	25d	1	0.52mi
2521 Birchcrest Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,795	$1.18	25d	1	0.55mi
2521 Bunkerton Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,450	$1.46	25d	1	0.63mi
2500 Bunkerton Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,909	$1.14	25d	1	0.64mi
2633 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,850	$1.38	25d	1	0.70mi
2644 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,800	$1.24	17d	1	0.74mi
10617 Kono Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	25d	1	0.74mi
10616 Kono Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,700	$1.10	13d	1	0.76mi
3053 Titan Springs Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,320	$1.39	25d	1	0.79mi
2513 Ponca Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2070	$2,495	$1.21	3d	1	0.84mi
10609 Potawatomi Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	25d	1	0.87mi
3012 Tooley Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$2,200	$1.28	25d	1	0.88mi
2520 Shakopee St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,695	$1.56	8d	1	0.88mi
2636 Keokuk St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	25d	1	0.92mi
2401 Linto St Fort Worth, TX	5.0	3.0	3043	$2,999	$0.99	17d	1	1.05mi
9108 Lookout Pt Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,100	$1.23	8d	1	1.13mi
9021 Eagles Landing Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,295	$1.24	21d	1	1.22mi
8925 Old Rawhide Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,295	$1.27	13d	1	1.23mi
8916 Old Rawhide Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,250	$1.27	25d	1	1.24mi
8928 Puerto Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$2,050	$1.26	25d	1	1.24mi
6212 Flour Mill Run Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,500	$1.37	25d	1	1.30mi
5864 Mount Plymouth Pt Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,100	$1.28	25d	1	1.33mi
5404 Thornbush Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2923	$2,900	$0.99	25d	1	1.39mi
11012 Dillon St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1735	$2,200	$1.27	13d	1	1.42mi
3025 Tooley Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,320	$1.39	25d	1	1.45mi
8700 Smokehouse Dr Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.0	2133	$2,495	$1.17	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $350,999 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,999 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,999 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   price $350,999 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,499 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $354,499 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $354,499 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $356,089 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $356,089 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $356,089 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $356,089 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $356,089 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    status Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and privacy. Two bedrooms are at the front of the home, including the owner's suite which features a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the hall is the open concept living area which includes a covered patio in the back. Upstairs is a game room loft, as well as two bedrooms that share a jack-and-jill style bathroom in between.

15. 2026-05-28
    price $391,499 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and privacy. Two bedrooms are at the front of the home, including the owner's suite which features a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the hall is the open concept living area which includes a covered patio in the back. Upstairs is a game room loft, as well as two bedrooms that share a jack-and-jill style bathroom in between.

16. 2026-05-27
    listed $391,499 Active
17. 2026-04-01
    historical 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and privacy. Two bedrooms are at the front of the home, including the owner's suite which features a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the hall is the open concept living area which includes a covered patio in the back. Upstairs is a game room loft, as well as two bedrooms that share a jack-and-jill style bathroom in between.

18. 2026-03-17
    price $357,999 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and privacy. Two bedrooms are at the front of the home, including the owner's suite which features a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the hall is the open concept living area which includes a covered patio in the back. Upstairs is a game room loft, as well as two bedrooms that share a jack-and-jill style bathroom in between.

19. 2026-03-16
    listed $387,999 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    This two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and privacy. Two bedrooms are at the front of the home, including the owner's suite which features a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the hall is the open concept living area which includes a covered patio in the back. Upstairs is a game room loft, as well as two bedrooms that share a jack-and-jill style bathroom in between.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,166 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,423 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,257/yr (+$438/mo · 451.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,661
• − Property taxes: −$1,166
• − Insurance: −$1,755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,529
• − Management: −$2,529
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$10,211
• Taxable loss: −$6,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,647
• After-tax cash flow: $988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817700
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $72,781
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #4945
• State rank: #361 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,090
• Household income: $107,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1494.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.12%
• Current HPI: 237.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $391,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Listed $391,499 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $357,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-16 Listed $387,999 Zillow