9648 4th St N · Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$379,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,893 sqft · Townhouse public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2022 1,829 sqft lot $201/sqft · 18% below area Est $455k · 17% under $242/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new construction. Clean and bright. Spacious 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom , 2 story townhome across from association dog park. High ceilings. Open kitchen. Fireplace in living room. Patio off of dining room. Large master bedroom &bath. Upper level laundry. Walk in closets. 2022 build.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Convenient mudroom
• Lake elmo townhome

Tags

• LAKE ELMO TOWNHOME
• OPEN AND FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE DINING AREA
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• CONVENIENT MUDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional mortgage types common
• HOA & community: HOA managed by New Concepts Management Group; Monthly association fee of $242; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, shared amenities, and snow removal; Community amenities include fire sprinkler system and in-ground sprinkler system

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers; Power by Xcel Energy
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Primary bedroom suite; Main-level half bath
• Construction: Block construction; Foundation: block; Roof age 8 years or newer
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Patio; Light tree coverage; No fencing; Association-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Eat-in kitchen / informal dining; Breakfast bar; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom suite; Upper-level bedrooms (two bedrooms on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Indoor sprinkler system; Kitchen center island; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Paneled doors; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (upper level); Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in Lake Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Elmo Elementary (math 54% / reading 48%, grade C-, #406 of 857 statewide, top 48%, 653 students, 28% FRL); Oak-Land Middle School (math 50% / reading 52%, grade C, #69 of 258 statewide, top 27%, 933 students, 28% FRL); Stillwater Area High School (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B-, #39 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,647 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $294,510 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,353
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: -16.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-84,180
• Equity at exit: $56,644

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-102,207
• Equity at exit: $32,847

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55042

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,486/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,396

Max offer price $316,940

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-249	+0% $-356	+5% $-464	+10% $-571
Rent	-10% $-589	-5% $-473	+0% $-356	+5% $-240	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-165	-0.5pp $-260	base $-356	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9485 4th St N Lake Elmo, MN	3.0–4.0	3.5	2113	$3,145	$1.49	1d	6	0.14mi
9730 Hudson Blvd N Lake Elmo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,841	$2.71	1d	29	0.21mi
9910 5th Street Ln N Lake Elmo, MN	3.0	2.5	1733	$2,495	$1.44	0d	1	0.34mi
10225 City Walk Dr Woodbury, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1388	$2,595	$1.87	1d	23	0.85mi
9000 City Place Blvd Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1194	$3,737	$3.13	3d	34	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $379,900 Active 999-char remark
17. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $382,560 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (289 chars)

    Brand new construction. Clean and bright. Spacious 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom , 2 story townhome across from association dog park. High ceilings. Open kitchen. Fireplace in living room. Patio off of dining room. Large master bedroom &bath. Upper level laundry. Walk in closets. 2022 build.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,486 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,870 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$3,486
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,827
• − Management: −$2,827
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$10,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Elmo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #5860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elmo, MN
• City population: 13,156
• Population (ZIP): 13,156

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.91%
• Current HPI: 224.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $379,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) $382,560 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+89.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,486 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.