2307 Herman St · Covington, KY 41014

$158,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot Est $219k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As is. Case# 202-020846. IS: Insured. Buyers agent to verify Sq FT., age, any HOA or maint fees, schools, lot size & available utilities. Appraisers contact Buyers Agent for info.

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Off street parking
• Storage shed

Tags

• DOUBLE LEVEL FENCED LOT
• OFF STREET PARKING
• SEPARATE DRIVEWAYS
• STORAGE SHED
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family house; Two stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Asphalt roof; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Vinyl window frames; Wood fencing; Shed(s); Cleared lot; Level lot; Paved road frontage on a city street; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (upper level); Second bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Glenn O Swing Elementary (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 407 students, 78% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 81% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 60 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $158k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.49%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2307 Herman St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (0%)	0mo	$145,000	$115	95
316 W 21st St	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,376 (+9%)	1mo	$205,000	$149	76
1735 Woodburn Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,255 (-1%)	1mo	$259,900	$207	69
2011 Howell St	0.19mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (-13%)	2mo	$189,000	$171	62
25 W 28th St	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,234 (-2%)	2mo	$266,000	$216	61
1733 Jefferson Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,203 (-5%)	1mo	$242,000	$201	60
2 W 28th St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,088 (-14%)	1mo	$210,000	$193	51
30 W 28th St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,157 (-8%)	1mo	$200,000	$173	51
1821 Jefferson Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,116 (-12%)	2mo	$242,000	$217	50
417 W 16th St	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,104 (-13%)	1mo	$52,500	$48	47
21 W 31st St	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,144 (-10%)	1mo	$90,000	$79	47
1942 Eastern Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,418 (+12%)	0mo	$200,000	$141	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,597
• Equity at exit: $23,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $49,425
• Equity at exit: $13,704

Cash invested: $44,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41014

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$831
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $406/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $158,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $433	+0% $388	+5% $343	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $256	-5% $322	+0% $388	+5% $454	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $428	base $388	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,625
• Closing costs: $4,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	8d	1	0.13mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	21d	1	0.44mi
2030 Mackoy St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1598	$1,779	$1.11	5d	1	0.50mi
512 Wallace Ave Unit 512/18 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	8d	1	0.65mi
1914 Eastern Ave Apt 3 Covington, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	15d	1	0.73mi
119 W 33rd St Unit 1 Latonia, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	24d	1	0.84mi
2220 Cityscape Dr Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,985	$2.13	2d	9	0.91mi
1222 E Henry Clay Ave Fort Wright, KY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,548	$1.29	24d	1	0.94mi
1205 Lee St Unit 3 Covington, KY	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,000	$1.62	24d	1	1.05mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	2d	10	1.13mi
344 E 13th St Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	24d	1	1.15mi
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	4d	1	1.25mi
1700 Aspen Pines Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1420	$1,895	$1.33	2d	14	1.34mi
120 Vista Point Dr Wilder, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,184	$1.39	3d	2	1.36mi
3918 Glenn Ave Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,449	$1.07	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $158,500 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 658-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $158,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,363 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$957/yr (+$80/mo · 235.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,878
• − Property taxes: −$406
• − Insurance: −$792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$4,611
• Taxable income: $2,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$514
• After-tax cash flow: $4,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 7,392
• Household income: $61,382
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 511.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.77%
• Current HPI: 233.8216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+734.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $158,500 NKMLS
• 2008-03-07 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NKMLS
• 2008-01-11 Listed $45,000 NKMLS
• 2007-01-24 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2006-07-28 Listed $79,921 NKMLS
• 2003-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2003-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2003-12-09 Sold (MLS) $69,900 NKMLS
• 2003-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-30 Listed $69,900 NKMLS
• 2003-06-17 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2003-03-17 Listed $74,900 NKMLS
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $406 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.