Oakdale Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$332,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Two-story | 1,714 Sq. Ft.

Key facts

• Covered balcony
• 2nd floor
• Split level

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR COVERED PATIO
• 2ND FLOOR
• COVERED BALCONY
• SPLIT LEVEL

🏗️ New construction. The $332,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $348,471.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 91d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,511 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,471
• List price: $332,990
• Delta: -4.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9421 Autumn Vale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-0%)	3mo	$345,000	$202	88
9414 Harvest Bay Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,699 (-1%)	2mo	$249,900	$147	84
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,835 (+7%)	5mo	$350,000	$191	76
9438 Garden Gate Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+11%)	1mo	$365,000	$192	72
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+11%)	5mo	$352,990	$186	70
9414 Autumn Vale Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+11%)	3mo	$360,000	$189	68
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+11%)	5mo	$349,990	$183	65
1220 Shaded Rock Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+11%)	1mo	$365,000	$191	63
1308 Shaded Rock Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+11%)	4mo	$360,000	$188	62
1215 Shaded Rock Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-14%)	6mo	$349,440	$237	61
1208 Shaded Rock Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+11%)	4mo	$360,000	$188	59
10307 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-6%)	4mo	$352,454	$219	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-53,234
• Equity at exit: $73,084

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-71,413
• Equity at exit: $67,694

Cash invested: $97,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $364,990 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 172 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,827
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,227/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,048

Max offer price $329,809

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $-9	+0% $-129	+5% $-249	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-243	+0% $-129	+5% $-15	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-40	base $-129	+0.5pp $-219	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,118
• Closing costs: $10,454
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	69d	1	0.22mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	184d	1	0.60mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.63mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	163d	1	0.67mi
10602 William Park Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,500	$1.64	130d	1	0.89mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	116d	1	0.91mi
15276 Highway 6 Missouri City, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,708	$1.51	6d	1	0.94mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	10d	1	1.26mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	90d	1	1.26mi
2507 Manor Valley Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1870	$1,900	$1.02	10d	1	1.32mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $332,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan home named OakdaleNew construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 9530 Spring Rain Dr, Missouri City TX 77459

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (total)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 17143 bedrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $332,990 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $332,990 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $332,990 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $332,990 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $332,990 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $332,990 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $332,990 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $332,990 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $332,990 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $332,990 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $332,990 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $332,990 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $332,990 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $332,990 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $332,990 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $332,990 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $332,990 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $332,990 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $332,990 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $332,990 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $332,990 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $332,990 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $332,990 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $332,990 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $332,990 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $332,990 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $332,990 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $332,990 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $332,990 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $332,990 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $332,990 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $332,990 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $332,990 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $332,990 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $332,990 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $332,990 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $332,990 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $332,990 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $332,990 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $332,990 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $332,990 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $332,990 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $332,990 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $332,990 Active 133 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $332,990 Active 132 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $332,990 Active 131 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $332,990 Active 130 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $332,990 Active 129 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $332,990 Active 128 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $332,990 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,520
• − Property taxes: −$5,227
• − Insurance: −$1,742
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − Depreciation: −$10,137
• Taxable loss: −$7,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,811
• After-tax cash flow: $263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would be a great investment for both resale and rental purposes.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for rental properties. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $332,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan home named OakdaleNew construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 9530 Spring Rain Dr, Missouri City TX 77459

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (total)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 17143 bedrooms