3155 Lexington Ave #14 · Lake Mohegan, NY 10567

$73,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 163 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Want a comfortable summer/weekend getaway? Then check out this 3-season cottage. .. this is a SEASONAL use home open from April 15- October 15 in the Mohegan Lake area in a 40-unit community sharing 8 meticulously landscaped acres. Enter through the front lawn of this private corner unit onto an oversized "Trex" style deck and into the main living area. The interior of the home begins with a kitchen space and separate dining room allowing for an easy flow between interior and exterior spaces, an ideal layout to entertain guests. A very large living room sits in the center of the home for ease of access or if your guests decide to spend the night or a long weekend of fun! Living

Key facts

• Private corner unit
• Community pool
• Separate dining room

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER UNIT
• OVERSIZED TREX STYLE DECK
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• VERY LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FULLY FURNISHED
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Additional annual fees totaling $240 (AC/electric fee $100; deck fee $140)

Exterior

• Parking: No carport
• Utilities: Shared septic; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available; Propane available; Sewer connected; Private trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning units; No central heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.9% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeland Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #149 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: George Washington Elementary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 410 students, 31% FRL); Lakeland-Copper Beech Middle School (math 38% / reading 66%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 1,247 students, 29% FRL); Walter Panas High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 901 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 12% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.21%
• DSCR: 5.55
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $99,095
• Equity at exit: $10,885

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.22×
• Total profit: $229,241
• Equity at exit: $6,312

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10567

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $1,741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,791	-5% $1,766	+0% $1,741	+5% $1,716	+10% $1,690
Rent	-10% $1,516	-5% $1,629	+0% $1,741	+5% $1,853	+10% $1,965
Rate	-1.0pp $1,778	-0.5pp $1,759	base $1,741	+0.5pp $1,722	+1.0pp $1,703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3180 Lincoln Dr Mohegan Lake, NY	2.0	1.0	1106	$3,300	$2.98	23d	1	0.37mi
209 New Chalet Dr Mohegan Lake, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,855	$3.01	0d	10	0.61mi
3604 Lexington Ave Unit 2 Mohegan Lake, NY	2.0	2.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	0d	1	1.07mi
3604 Lexington Ave Unit 3 Mohegan Lake, NY	1.0	1.0	529	$1,900	$3.59	0d	1	1.07mi
3213 S Shelley St Mohegan Lake, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,999	$3.00	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $73,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $73,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $73,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $73,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,000 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    status Active
16. 2025-09-04
    listed $73,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,729
• − Management: −$2,729
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $20,978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,035
• After-tax cash flow: $15,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616620
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $91,965
• Composite: 59.2/100
• National rank: #944
• State rank: #149 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 20,260

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -563.35%
• Current HPI: 219.2852
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $73,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid