16711 Marsh Creek Rd #122 · Antioch, CA 94517

$155,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Other · 102 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offering nearly 940 square feet of comfortable living in a peaceful country setting. Built in 2020, this move-in ready home features vaulted ceilings that create an open, airy feel, durable vinyl flooring, and fresh new interior paint throughout. The well-designed floor plan provides both functionality and privacy, making it ideal for a variety of lifestyles. Enjoy modern construction without the modern price tag — this is an incredible value you won’t want to miss. Community amenities truly set this property apart, offering residents access to a sparkling pool, covered play area, game room, dog park, fully equipped g

Key facts

• Vaulted ceilings
• Covered play area
• Community pool

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• FRESH NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• WELL-DESIGNED FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PLAY AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Clayton Regency community amenities and services

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: 220 volts in kitchen; Gas water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-wide mobile home; Main entry at street level
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Crawl space foundation; Wood skirt
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot; Community pool; Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Playground; Dog park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Free-standing range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; 220V outlet in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower; Additional bathroom(s) with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Main entry; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; Community laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,869 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.27%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $63,799
• Equity at exit: $23,245

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $170,206
• Equity at exit: $13,479

Cash invested: $43,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $443/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $1,399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $155,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,975
• Closing costs: $4,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $155,900 Pending 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $155,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-04-07
    status Active
13. 2026-03-23
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2026-03-04
    listed $155,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $443 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,185 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$742/yr (+$62/mo · 167.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,733
• − Property taxes: −$443
• − Insurance: −$1,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,898
• − Management: −$2,898
• − Depreciation: −$4,535
• Taxable income: $15,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,633
• After-tax cash flow: $13,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-23 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-04 Listed $155,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+24.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $443 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.