266 Locust Rd · Knox, IN 46534

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1941 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 3.8% in Knox — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in IN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Knox Community School Corporation (town): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #242 of 301 in IN (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knox Community Elementary School (math 47% / reading 38%, grade F, #425 of 994 statewide, top 44%, 704 students, 66% FRL); Knox Community Middle School (math 18% / reading 24%, grade F, #270 of 330 statewide, top 82%, 470 students, 66% FRL); Knox Community High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #143 of 369 statewide, top 44%, 572 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Starke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Starke County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.11%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,304
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 W Bender St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,152 (0%)	10mo	$42,000	$36	79
222 W Locust Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,215 (+6%)	16mo	$88,000	$72	73
208 N Heaton St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (+1%)	11mo	$164,000	$140	68
303 E Lake St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-6%)	2mo	$139,000	$129	64
203 W Lake St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+15%)	2mo	$180,000	$136	62
201 W Lake St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+11%)	13mo	$77,500	$61	60
501 W John St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+10%)	6mo	$159,900	$127	58
706 E Lake St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,216 (+6%)	9mo	$150,000	$123	48
501 S Pearl St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-8%)	16mo	$90,000	$85	47
608 S Bower St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,228 (+7%)	9mo	$182,000	$148	46
700 Delamatyr St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	17mo	$165,000	$156	39
412 S East St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,292 (+12%)	12mo	$64,000	$50	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $45,644
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $112,210
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46534

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,360/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $918	-5% $900	+0% $881	+5% $863	+10% $845
Rent	-10% $745	-5% $813	+0% $881	+5% $949	+10% $1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $914	-0.5pp $898	base $881	+0.5pp $864	+1.0pp $847

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,360
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $10,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,441
• After-tax cash flow: $8,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knox Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1805340
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,955
• Composite: 25.64/100
• National rank: #7401
• State rank: #242 of 301 in IN

Livability — Knox

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #20938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knox, IN
• City population: 11,029
• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Starke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,860 people
• By 2030: 21,024 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 16,881 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 11,880 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 7,217 · -67.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Starke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -55.3pp toward R · 2008: 3.2pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.8 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: D+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.15%
• Current HPI: 244.2216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,360 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.