794 The Ole Barney Rd · Indian Springs, TX 77351

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1980 10,201 sqft lot $150/sqft · 38% below area Est $146k · 38% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home sits on a fully fenced corner lot in Indian Springs Lake Estates. The 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features an enclosed front porch and a spacious laundry/storage room. An RV is included with the property, offering additional living quarters for guests or extended stays. A separate storage shed is equipped with electricity and previously had plumbing in place, providing potential for future finish-out. The property is being offered mostly furnished, including the refrigerator, stove, microwave, and most of the furniture—making it move-in ready or ideal as a weekend getaway. The home has window units and central heat and air (the A/C unit is currently not working but can be repaired). A durable metal roof adds long-term value. Indian Springs Lake Estates offers low HOA dues and relaxed deed restrictions. At the entrance to the subdivision, you’ll find three grocery stores, a volunteer fire department, a clubhouse, and lake access for residents. Ready for your vision!

Key facts

• Rv included
• Enclosed front porch
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY STORAGE ROOM
• RV INCLUDED
• SEPARATE STORAGE SHED
• EQUIPPED WITH ELECTRICITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,068 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.13%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,831
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -38.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
253 The Ole Barney Rd	0.53mi	1/2.0 (-1)	586 (-2%)	13mo	$192,000	$328	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,025
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $16,597
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $90,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $90,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-02-11
    listed $90,000 Active 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    This home sits on a fully fenced corner lot in Indian Springs Lake Estates. The 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features an enclosed front porch and a spacious laundry/storage room. An RV is included with the property, offering additional living quarters for guests or extended stays. A separate storage shed is equipped with electricity and previously had plumbing in place, providing potential for future finish-out. The property is being offered mostly furnished, including the refrigerator, stove, microwave, and most of the furniture—making it move-in ready or ideal as a weekend getaway. The home has window units and central heat and air (the A/C unit is currently not working but can be repaired). A durable metal roof adds long-term value. Indian Springs Lake Estates offers low HOA dues and relaxed deed restrictions. At the entrance to the subdivision, you’ll find three grocery stores, a volunteer fire department, a clubhouse, and lake access for residents. Ready for your vision!

14. 2018-03-21
    soldstatus
15. 2004-11-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$449/yr (+$37/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$284
• After-tax cash flow: $2,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Indian Springs

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1068
• US rank: #18956

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian Springs, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.