1869 Pike Rd · Birmingham, AL 35218

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,227 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 329 Days on market

Built 1930 7,840 sqft lot $69/sqft · 18% above area Est $72k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is currently tenant-occupied and located in a stable neighborhood. It offers a solid investment with potential for long-term value appreciation. Buyers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence regarding the tenant status and property condition. A great addition for investors looking to expand their portfolio

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 329 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,160/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 621% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.45%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,071
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 17.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2321 22nd St Ensley	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,388 (+13%)	0mo	$77,000	$55	62
3300 Avenue Q	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,227 (0%)	0mo	$35,000	$29	61
2712 24th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+0%)	8mo	$42,000	$34	61
3009 Prince Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-4%)	8mo	$50,000	$43	60
1414 27th St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-5%)	4mo	$50,000	$43	59
1820 33rd St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (-1%)	7mo	$40,000	$33	57
2568 29th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+4%)	10mo	$159,000	$125	55
2436 29th St W	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,398 (+14%)	2mo	$98,100	$70	52
2700 30th Street Ensley	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,136 (-7%)	6mo	$33,500	$29	50
2728 20th Place Ensley	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+10%)	1mo	$47,000	$35	48
1805 34th St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-11%)	10mo	$147,500	$136	34
2617 Avenue K	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-15%)	10mo	$60,000	$57	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $13,604
• Equity at exit: $18,338

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $45,126
• Equity at exit: $17,454

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35218

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $722

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $394	-5% $370	+0% $346	+5% $322	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $255	-5% $300	+0% $346	+5% $392	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $368	base $346	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2426 Avenue U Unit U Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,175	$0.93	19d	1	0.14mi
2108 25th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1446	$1,300	$0.90	44d	1	0.21mi
2337 23rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1446	$1,295	$0.90	44d	1	0.26mi
2213 25th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1197	$1,150	$0.96	11d	1	0.27mi
2037 26th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1074	$995	$0.93	44d	1	0.28mi
1825 18th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,123	$0.85	44d	1	0.36mi
2356 22nd Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1500	$985	$0.66	24d	1	0.36mi
1609 Pike Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	820	$800	$0.98	19d	5	0.37mi
1521 22nd Street Ensley Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$875	$1.17	24d	1	0.39mi
2610 Avenue P Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1014	$850	$0.84	44d	1	0.43mi
1616 28th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1081	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.44mi
1316 Court R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	904	$900	$1.00	11d	1	0.44mi
1724 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1428	$1,395	$0.98	16d	1	0.48mi
1521 27th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.50mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	4d	1	0.51mi
1306 Avenue R Unit R Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	980	$950	$0.97	44d	1	0.51mi
2421 29th Street Ensley Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$703	$0.74	24d	1	0.53mi
2609 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,550	$1.26	44d	1	0.55mi
2609 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	4d	1	0.55mi
1545 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1331	$1,200	$0.90	44d	1	0.55mi
2329 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	917	$990	$1.08	24d	1	0.56mi
2621 20th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,295	$1.16	44d	1	0.59mi
1001 21st Street Ensley Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	16d	1	0.59mi
3009 Prince Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,095	$0.93	24d	1	0.60mi
1501 29th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	772	$800	$1.04	24d	1	0.63mi
1701 Avenue I Unit I Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,200	$1.05	4d	1	0.65mi
1532 31st Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	839	$850	$1.01	44d	1	0.66mi
1820 33rd St W Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.5	1212	$1,495	$1.23	44d	1	0.66mi
2712 24th Street Ensley Unit ENSLEY Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,099	$0.89	24d	1	0.66mi
2661 Bush Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,200	$1.17	44d	1	0.67mi
3221 Avenue S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	0.67mi
820 17th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,250	$0.94	44d	1	0.68mi
2720 23rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	4d	1	0.68mi
2520 Avenue L Unit A Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.5	1260	$1,150	$0.91	24d	1	0.69mi
811 17th Aly Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1146	$1,050	$0.92	11d	1	0.69mi
2709 30th Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1410	$1,323	$0.94	2d	1	0.73mi
2617 Avenue K Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1046	$1,495	$1.43	2d	1	0.75mi
2520 Avenue U Unit A Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1260	$1,200	$0.95	44d	1	0.77mi
1524 33rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1222	$1,095	$0.90	22d	1	0.78mi
1520 33rd Street Ensley Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1215	$1,275	$1.05	12d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 328 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 327 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 326 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 324 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 320 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 319 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 318 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 314 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 313 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 312 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 311 DOM
14. 2025-09-26
    price $85,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is currently tenant-occupied and located in a stable neighborhood. It offers a solid investment with potential for long-term value appreciation. Buyers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence regarding the tenant status and property condition. A great addition for investors looking to expand their portfolio

15. 2025-07-24
    listed $86,000 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is currently tenant-occupied and located in a stable neighborhood. It offers a solid investment with potential for long-term value appreciation. Buyers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence regarding the tenant status and property condition. A great addition for investors looking to expand their portfolio

16. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $465,000
17. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $679,000
18. 2013-11-26
    soldstatus $33,000
19. 2011-06-06
    soldstatus $9,000
20. 2008-03-14
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,965
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$712
• After-tax cash flow: $3,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 6,981
• Household income: $30,739
• Rent vs Own: 63.9% rent · 36.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 621.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% Two or more races 17% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 170.4053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $86,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $679,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $465,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.