5859 Mandarin Dr · Goleta, CA 93117

$2,485,000

72 bd · 36.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 279 Days on market

Built 1956 ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Tons of potential! Month to month leases on this 6-unit multifamily in prime Goleta with strong rental demand and future upside. Each 2BD/1BA unit offers efficient layouts with patios or decks and mountain views. Amenities include garages with storage, on-site laundry, and ample parking. Located near UCSB, Old Town, and major employers, this property benefits from consistent tenant demand. All tenants are month-to-month with signed estoppels in hand including one year lease rejections - positioning this asset for rent growth and long-term value. ADU Potential.

Key facts

• Adu potential
• Multifamily
• Ample parking

Tags

• MULTIFAMILY
• PATIOS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY
• AMPLE PARKING
• ADU POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly total rental income listed as $12,280; Individual unit rent example: $2,025; Units are not furnished; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Heating available
• Home design: Multi-unit property with 6 units; Zoned Other
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Near public transit

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 12 bedrooms across units
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Hardwood; Wood/laminate
• Bathrooms: Total of 6 bathrooms across units
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating
• Interior features: Laundry room; Near public transit; Property in good condition
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $2.48M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive. Per door: $359/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.12M (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.12M (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Goleta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#40 in CA, #1,510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Goleta Union Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #195 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: La Patera Elementary (376 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $21,174/mo this rent would consume 282% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 4402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.19M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $510k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,117,400 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-189,855
• Equity at exit: $370,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $345,390
• Equity at exit: $214,857

Cash invested: $695,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93117

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 58.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,032
• Tax from tax record: −$507 /mo · $6,085/yr
• Insurance: −$1,035
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,447
• Net cashflow: $2,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,448

Max offer price $2,485,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,560	-5% $2,857	+0% $2,153	+5% $1,450	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $481	-5% $1,317	+0% $2,153	+5% $2,990	+10% $3,826
Rate	-1.0pp $3,405	-0.5pp $2,785	base $2,153	+0.5pp $1,509	+1.0pp $854

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	2	1	$21,174
Total (6 units)			$21,174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $621,250
• Closing costs: $74,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,485,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,485,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $2,485,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,485,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,485,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,485,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,485,000 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $2,485,000 Active 260 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    price $2,485,000 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Tons of potential! Month to month leases on this 6-unit multifamily in prime Goleta with strong rental demand and future upside. Each 2BD/1BA unit offers efficient layouts with patios or decks and mountain views. Amenities include garages with storage, on-site laundry, and ample parking. Located near UCSB, Old Town, and major employers, this property benefits from consistent tenant demand. All tenants are month-to-month with signed estoppels in hand including one year lease rejections - positioning this asset for rent growth and long-term value. ADU Potential.

18. 2026-05-15
    price $2,485,000
19. 2026-03-01
    price $2,750,000
20. 2025-11-05
    price $2,995,000

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Tons of potential! Month to month leases on this 6-unit multifamily in prime Goleta with strong rental demand and future upside. Each 2BD/1BA unit offers efficient layouts with patios or decks and mountain views. Amenities include garages with storage, on-site laundry, and ample parking. Located near UCSB, Old Town, and major employers, this property benefits from consistent tenant demand. All tenants are month-to-month with signed estoppels in hand including one year lease rejections - positioning this asset for rent growth and long-term value. ADU Potential.

21. 2025-11-05
    listed $2,995,000 Active 566-char remark

    Show marketing remark (566 chars)

    Tons of potential! Month to month leases on this 6-unit multifamily in prime Goleta with strong rental demand and future upside. Each 2BD/1BA unit offers efficient layouts with patios or decks and mountain views. Amenities include garages with storage, on-site laundry, and ample parking. Located near UCSB, Old Town, and major employers, this property benefits from consistent tenant demand. All tenants are month-to-month with signed estoppels in hand including one year lease rejections - positioning this asset for rent growth and long-term value. ADU Potential.

22. 2025-10-02
    price $3,150,000
23. 2025-09-12
    listed $3,300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,085 · $507/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,886 · $1,574/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,801/yr (+$1,067/mo · 210.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $254,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,199
• − Property taxes: −$6,085
• − Insurance: −$12,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,327
• − Management: −$20,327
• − Depreciation: −$72,291
• Taxable loss: −$16,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,976
• After-tax cash flow: $29,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goleta Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615510
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,375
• Composite: 56.2/100
• National rank: #2513
• State rank: #195 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Goleta

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #1510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goleta, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 52,934
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,934
• Household income: $90,037
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4402.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1327.27%
• Current HPI: 301.0456
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.49%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-24.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $2,485,000 TheMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $2,485,000 SBMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $2,750,000 SBMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $2,995,000 SBMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $2,995,000 TheMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $3,150,000 SBMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $3,300,000 SBMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,085 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.