Is 12248 Lexington Hts in Willis, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.6% cap rate and $-453/mo modeled cash flow at a $298,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 12248 Lexington Hts?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,342/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.09

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.8/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.2/10.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
DSCR +1.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$298,990

12248 Lexington Hts · Willis, TX 77318

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,349 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,000 sqft lot Garage $66/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Dallas floor plan offers a spacious two-story design with 2,477 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This versatile layout is ideal for families seeking both open gathering areas and private retreats. The main floor welcomes you with an open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating the perfect setting for entertaining or relaxing. The modern kitchen boasts a large island, generous counter space, and ample cabinetry, making meal prep and family dinners easy and enjoyable. A first-floor bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious owner's suite offers a private escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft space provide plenty of room for family, hobbies, or a home office. With thoughtful storage options, a convenient laundry room, and open sightlines throughout, the Dallas floor plan combines functionality, style, and comfort- perfect for modern families who value space, flexibility, and connection in their everyday living.

Key facts

Quality cabinets
Quartz counter tops
Smart home system

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (13.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (21.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $234k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $234,153 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.72% ✗
Cap rate: 4.61%
Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
DSCR: 0.73
GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $323,709
List price: $298,990
Delta: -7.64%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11961 Barbaro Dr	0.13mi	6/2.5	2,349 (0%)	2mo	$297,990	$127	92
12292 Lexington Hts	0.00mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,129 (-9%)	1mo	$285,990	$134	75
11826 Serena's Song	0.62mi	6/2.5	2,349 (0%)	2mo	$274,990	$117	69
11757 Whirlaway Dr	0.51mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	0mo	$358,725	$148	64
12223 Danza Dr	0.57mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	0mo	$349,345	$145	61
12247 Danza Dr	0.60mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	1mo	$319,748	$132	61
12235 Danza Dr	0.59mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	6mo	$347,959	$144	58
11834 Serena's Song Dr	0.62mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,252 (-4%)	6mo	$283,990	$126	54
11780 Whirlaway Dr	0.47mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	17mo	$326,241	$135	54
11741 Whirlaway Dr	0.55mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	15mo	$350,765	$145	52
11721 Whirlaway Dr	0.59mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+3%)	15mo	$318,447	$132	50
12136 Alydar Dr	0.41mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,588 (+10%)	16mo	$415,000	$160	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -30.1%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-88,110
Equity at exit: $48,266

10-year hold

IRR: -51.8%
Equity multiple: -0.55×
Total profit: $-140,109
Equity at exit: $27,988

Cash invested: $90,639 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 18 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $293,990 ($134/sqft)
Median days on market: 130 d
This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +2.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

Home prices YoY: -32.7%
Rents YoY: -2.1%
Active inventory: 1387
Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,342 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,698
Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,856/yr
Insurance: −$135
HOA: −$66
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,915

Max offer price $258,120

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-230	-5% $-341	+0% $-453	+5% $-565	+10% $-677
Rent	-10% $-638	-5% $-546	+0% $-453	+5% $-361	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-290	-0.5pp $-371	base $-453	+0.5pp $-537	+1.0pp $-622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $80,927
Closing costs: $9,711
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Built by D.R. Horton
HOA & community: Community managed by ICM ManagementAnnual association fee of $795

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionSlab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemPorchPrivate yard

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveQuartz counters
Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: Quartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air qualityTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $298,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $298,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $298,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $298,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $298,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $298,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $298,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $298,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $298,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $298,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $298,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $298,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $298,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $298,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $298,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $298,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $298,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $298,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $298,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $298,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $298,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $298,990 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $298,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $298,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $298,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $298,990 Active 32 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $298,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $298,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $298,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $298,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $298,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $298,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $298,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $298,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $298,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $298,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $298,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $298,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $298,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $298,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $298,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $298,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $298,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $298,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $298,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $298,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-07

days on marketlisting id $298,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $298,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $298,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $298,990 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,098
− Mortgage interest: −$18,133
− Property taxes: −$4,856
− Insurance: −$1,619
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
− Management: −$2,248
− HOA: −$792
− Depreciation: −$9,417
Taxable loss: −$11,213

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,691
After-tax cash flow: $-2,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Conroe, TX, is in good condition with a spacious floor plan and modern amenities. It is move-in ready with minor updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal and value. ↑
Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Willis ISD
NCES district ID: 4845900
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,828
Composite: 32.32/100
National rank: #5746
State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

Score: 62/100
State rank: #933
US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 38,421
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 20,792
Household income: $92,415
Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
Current HPI: 236.256
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-04 Listed $298,990 HARMLS
2026-05-14 Listed $298,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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